Long-Term Evidence Shows that Crop-Rotation Diversification Increases Agricultural Resilience to Adverse Growing Conditions in North America
Long-Term Evidence Shows that Crop-Rotation Diversification Increases Agricultural Resilience to Adverse Growing Conditions in North America
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DOI：
10.1016/j.oneear.2020.02.007
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发表时间：
2020-03-20
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Grandy, A. Stuart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bowles, Timothy M.;Mooshammer, Maria;Grandy, A. Stuart
人类面临的一个重大挑战是如何在气候变化和环境退化的情况下为不断增长的人口生产粮食。虽然经验证据仍然很少，但提高环境可持续性的管理战略，如通过作物轮作增加农业生态系统多样性，也可能在不牺牲产量的情况下提高对极端天气的抵御能力。我们使用多层次回归分析的长期作物产量数据集在大陆降水梯度，以评估时间作物多样化如何影响玉米产量集中管理的粮食系统。随着时间的推移，在所有生长条件下，更多样化的轮作增加了玉米产量（平均28.1%），包括在有利条件下（22.6%）。值得注意的是，在不利条件下，更多样化的轮作也对产量产生了积极影响，在干旱年份，产量损失减少了14.0%-89.9%。对环境可持续性和产量复原力采取系统办法，如作物轮作多样化，是减少风险战略的一个核心组成部分，应有助于政策的实施。
A grand challenge facing humanity is how to produce food for a growing population in the face of a changing climate and environmental degradation. Although empirical evidence remains sparse, management strategies that increase environmental sustainability, such as increasing agroecosystem diversity through crop rotations, may also increase resilience to weather extremes without sacrificing yields. We used multilevel regression analyses of long-term crop yield datasets across a continental precipitation gradient to assess how temporal crop diversification affects maize yields in intensively managed grain systems. More diverse rotations increased maize yields over time and across all growing conditions (28.1% on average), including in favorable conditions (22.6%). Notably, more diverse rotations also showed positive effects on yield under unfavorable conditions, whereby yield losses were reduced by 14.0%-89.9% in drought years. Systems approaches to environmental sustainability and yield resilience, such as crop-rotation diversification, are a central component of risk-reduction strategies and should inform the enablement of policies.