Technological advances relevant to transport - understanding what drives them
Technological advances relevant to transport - understanding what drives them
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2020.03.002
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Jones, Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cohen, Tom;Jones, Peter
运输决策者对运输部门的变化速度和外部行为者日益增加的影响越来越感到困惑。这导致了各种反应，包括“一切照旧”、技术乐观主义、技术宿命论和技术无知。为了探索这一困惑及其合理性，我们研究了与运输相关的四个技术进步领域：移动性即服务;无人驾驶飞行器（无人机）;自动驾驶汽车;和远程医疗。在每一种情况下，我们都确定了推动这些技术进步的主要潜在变化，并得出结论，其中有相当大的重叠：其中三项进步依赖于无处不在的传感和人工智能，而所有四项进步在某种程度上都依赖于连通性。然后，我们探讨了这三个“驱动因素”，发现进展比通常认为的要快。我们讨论了我们的一套运输相关的技术发展的影响，得出的结论是，政策制定者可以更大的信心比目前典型的未来。它们还可以借鉴预期治理的概念，以支持它们对新兴技术的管理，同时也支持对外部行为者影响的管理。
Transport policy makers are increasingly perplexed by the pace of change in their sector and by the increasing influence of external actors. This leads to a variety of responses, including "business as usual", technological optimism, technological fatalism and technological ignorance. To explore this perplexity and its justification, we examine four areas of technological advance relevant to transport: mobility as a service; unmanned aerial vehicles (drones); automated vehicles; and telehealth. In each case, we identify the principal underlying shifts which are driving these technological advances, concluding that there is considerable overlap: three of the advances rely on ubiquitous sensing and on artificial intelligence and all four rely, to some degree, on connectedness. We then explore these three "drivers", finding that progress is steadier than may be generally thought. We discuss the implications for our set of transport-related technological developments, concluding that policy makers could approach the future with greater confidence than is currently typical. They could also draw on the concepts of anticipatory governance to support their management of emerging technology and, at the same time, of the influence of external actors.