Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
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DOI：
10.1017/s0022050722000407
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发表时间：
2022-12-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Verner, Emil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Correia, Sergio;Luck, Stephan;Verner, Emil
我们研究了1918年流感大流行期间非药物干预措施（npi）对美国各城市死亡率和经济活动的影响。快速和严格的国家行动计划相结合，可将峰值死亡率降低50%，累计超额死亡率降低24%至34%。然而，虽然大流行本身与短期经济中断有关，但我们发现，这些中断在严格和宽松的npi城市之间是相似的。npi也没有恶化中期经济结果。我们的研究结果表明，npi可以减少疾病传播，而不会进一步抑制经济活动，这一发现也反映在当代报纸的讨论中。
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.