Three Two Tango: Territorial Control and Selective Violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza
Three Two Tango: Territorial Control and Selective Violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza
复制标题
三二探戈：以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙的领土控制和选择性暴力
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Choi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Bhavnani;D. Miodownik;H. Choi
本文扩展了Stathis Kalyvas的选择性暴力理论的形式逻辑，以解释三个具有不对称能力的政治行为体。与Kalyvas的理论相反，作者的计算机模拟表明：（1）较强行为者的选择性暴力将集中在较弱行为者行使控制的地区;（2）较弱行为者使用的选择性暴力的相对水平将较低，因为诱导平民合作的能力降低;以及（3）三个行动者之间的平等领域将显示出主要由最强的行动者实施的选择性暴力的低水平。从逻辑回归的结果，使用经验数据对以色列和两个敌对的巴勒斯坦派别从2006年至2008年，与这些预测是一致的：以色列更有可能在主要由巴勒斯坦派别控制的地区使用选择性暴力;以色列控制不完全的地区不容易发生选择性暴力;和混合控制区见证了中等水平的选择性暴力，主要是以色列。尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的暴力仍然与卡利瓦斯的预测一致。
This article extends the formal logic of Stathis Kalyvas’ theory of selective violence to account for three political actors with asymmetric capabilities. In contrast to Kalyvas’ theory, the authors’ computer simulation suggests that (1) selective violence by the stronger actor will be concentrated in areas where weaker actors exercise control; (2) the relative level of selective violence used by weaker actors will be lower because of a reduced capacity to induce civilian collaboration; and (3) areas of parity among the three actors will exhibit low levels of selective violence perpetrated primarily by the strongest actor. Results from a logistic regression, using empirical data on Israel and two rival Palestinian factions from 2006 to 2008, are consistent with these predictions: Israel was more likely to use selective violence in areas largely controlled by Palestinian factions; zones of incomplete Israeli control were not prone to selective violence; and zones of mixed control witnessed moderate levels of selective violence, mainly by Israel. Nonetheless, Palestinian violence remained consistent with Kalyvas’ predictions.