Projection effects and specification bias in spatial models of European Parliament elections
Projection effects and specification bias in spatial models of European Parliament elections
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欧洲议会选举空间模型中的投影效应和规范偏差
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Tiemann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peter Grand;G. Tiemann
大量的经验证据表明，选民投票时不仅考虑政党或候选人的不同政策立场，而且似乎会将他们喜欢的候选人/政党拉近自己的理想立场（“同化”），同时将他们不喜欢的候选人/政党推远（“对比”）。这些效应被称为“投射效应”。我们说明，选民的候选人/政党的政策立场的看法是污染的非空间的考虑。基于EES系列的数据，我们实证表明，预测效应在欧洲议会选举中具有实质性意义和统计意义。此外，我们区分非系统性的预测偏差，只依赖于接近一个特定的候选人或政党和系统性的预测偏差，也受到政党，选民和特定背景的决定因素。
Substantial empirical evidence suggests that voters cast their ballot not only by considering the different policy positions of parties or candidates, but also appear to pull candidates/parties they prefer closer to their own ideal position (‘assimilation’) while pushing candidates/parties they dislike, farther away (‘contrast’). These effects are called ‘projection effects’. We illustrate that voters’ perceptions of policy positions of candidates/parties are contaminated by non-spatial considerations. Building on data from the EES series, we empirically demonstrate that projection effects are substantively meaningful and statistically significant in elections to the European Parliament. We moreover distinguish between unsystematic projection bias that only depends on the closeness to a specific candidate or party and systematic projection bias that is also affected by party-, voter-, and context-specific determinants.