Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change
Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15868
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发表时间：
2021-10-07
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Moyer, Elisabeth J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Franke, James A.;Mueller, Christoph;Moyer, Elisabeth J.
现代粮食生产在空间上集中在全球“粮仓”。“一个尚未解决的主要问题是，随着气候变暖，这些产量高峰区是否会向极地转移，从而使潜在的气候相关损失得到一些恢复。虽然迄今为止的农业影响研究主要集中在目前的耕地上，但全球网格作物模型相互比较项目（GGCMI）第二阶段实验使我们能够评估产量和峰值生产力区域在变暖下的变化。我们研究作物的反应，预计在世纪末变暖使用7个基于过程的模型模拟五种主要作物（玉米，水稻，大豆，春小麦和冬小麦）的各种适应策略。我们发现，在无适应的情况下，当种植日期和品种的选择是固定的，生产高峰的地区保持不变，产量损失可能是严重的，因为生长季节的合同强烈变暖。当管理实践中的适应是允许的（品种，保持生长季节长度下变暖和修改种植日期），高峰生产力区向两极移动，产量损失在很大程度上得到恢复。虽然大多数种植区的转移最终受到地理位置的限制，但根据RCP 8.5，到世纪末，这里研究的粮食篮子平均向极地移动600多公里。这些结果表明，农业影响评估可以强烈偏见，如果在空间区域或在考虑的适应行为的范围内的限制。准确评估气候变化下的粮食安全需要全球建模和认真对待适应战略。
Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets." A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climate-related losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end of century warming using seven process-based models simulating five major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.