Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.
Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination.
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DOI：
10.7554/elife.73584
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发表时间：
2022-06-21
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Viboud C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Truelove S;Smith CP;Qin M;Mullany LC;Borchering RK;Lessler J;Shea K;Howerton E;Contamin L;Levander J;Kerr J;Hochheiser H;Kinsey M;Tallaksen K;Wilson S;Shin L;Rainwater-Lovett K;Lemairtre JC;Dent J;Kaminsky J;Lee EC;Perez-Saez J;Hill A;Karlen D;Chinazzi M;Davis JT;Mu K;Xiong X;Pastore Y Piontti A;Vespignani A;Srivastava A;Porebski P;Venkatramanan S;Adiga A;Lewis B;Klahn B;Outten J;Orr M;Harrison G;Hurt B;Chen J;Vullikanti A;Marathe M;Hoops S;Bhattacharya P;Machi D;Chen S;Paul R;Janies D;Thill JC;Galanti M;Yamana TK;Pei S;Shaman JL;Healy JM;Slayton RB;Biggerstaff M;Johansson MA;Runge MC;Viboud C
2021年春季，高传染性SARS-CoV-2 Delta变异株开始在美国部分地区导致病例、住院和死亡人数增加。当时，随着疫苗接种速度放缓，这种新型变异预计将增加2021年夏季和秋季美国大流行病死灰复燃的风险。作为COVID-19情景建模中心的一部分，九个机械模型的集合为美国2021年7月至12月提供了6个月的情景预测。这些预测估计，由于传播性更强的Delta变异，COVID-19在美国各地将大幅反弹，预计将在美国大部分地区发生，与学校和企业重新开放相吻合。这些情景显示，在2021年7月至12月达到更高的疫苗覆盖率大大减少了预计复苏的规模和持续时间，预期影响主要集中在疫苗接种覆盖率较低的一部分州。尽管对COVID-19疫情激增的发生和时间作出准确预测，但与7月至12月期间发生的报告病例、住院和死亡相比，模型大幅低估了2021年的规模，凸显了预测不断演变的COVID-19疫情的持续挑战。接种疫苗对于限制传播和疾病仍然至关重要，特别是在疫苗接种覆盖率较低的州。在新变异病毒激增开始时提高疫苗接种目标，估计可避免150多万例病例和21 000例死亡，但考虑到该模型低估了重新出现的规模，可能会产生更大的影响。
In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July–December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July–December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July–December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.