Integrating ensemble species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography to inform projections of climate change impacts on species distributions
Integrating ensemble species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeography to inform projections of climate change impacts on species distributions
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.12098
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Bunn, Andrew G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Forester, Brenna R.;DeChaine, Eric G.;Bunn, Andrew G.
目的物种分布模型（SDM）通常用于预测气候变化的影响。然而，这些模型受到重要假设和限制。通过整合两个独立的，但互补的方法，合奏SDM和统计地理学，我们解决了关键的假设，并建立了强大的评估气候变化对物种分布的影响，同时提高这些projects.LocationNorth American cordillera.MethodsThis方法的保护价值被证明使用北极高山植物红景天integrifolia（景天科）。SDMs使用八个模型、两个阈值和一到三个气候数据集与当前和过去的气候相拟合。这些预测结合起来，创建了一个自末次间冰期（124，000 kya）以来的稳定气候（避难所）地图。根据避难所的结构，提出了五个避难所地理学假说，并使用统计避难所地理学进行了检验。到未来的SDMs预测是取决于跨方法的协议，未来的预测（到2085年）使用五个气候数据集和两个温室气体scenaries.ResultsA多避难所假说支持这两种方法，确认R.integrifolia的生态位保守性的假设和合理的SDMs预测到未来的气候。未来的预测表明，气候适宜的生境将大量丧失。南方种群的损失最大，尽管地理学规模的建模可能高估了地形复杂地区的灭绝风险。过去和未来的SDMs进行了评估，新的气候变量的价值，新的气候领域被标记为具有较高的不确定性。主要conclusionsIntegrating分子方法与空间分析的物种分布在全球变化下有很大的潜力，以提高保护决策。分子工具可以支持和改进目前的方法，以了解物种对气候变化的脆弱性，并提供更多的数据，保护决策的基础上，如优先保护高遗传多样性的地区，以建立种群内的进化弹性。
AimSpecies distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to forecast climate change impacts. These models, however, are subject to important assumptions and limitations. By integrating two independent but complementary methods, ensemble SDMs and statistical phylogeography, we addressed key assumptions and created robust assessments of climate change impacts on species distributions while improving the conservation value of these projections.LocationNorth American cordillera.MethodsThis approach was demonstrated using the arctic-alpine plant Rhodiola integrifolia (Crassulaceae). SDMs were fitted to current and past climates using eight models, two thresholds and one to three climate data sets. These projections were combined to create a map of stable climate (refugia) since the Last Interglacial (124,000kya). Five biogeographic hypotheses were developed based on the configuration of refugia and tested using statistical phylogeography. Projection of SDMs into the future was contingent on agreement across approaches; future projections (to 2085) used five climate data sets and two greenhouse gas scenarios.ResultsA multiple-refugia hypothesis was supported by both methods, confirming the assumption of niche conservatism in R.integrifolia and justifying the projection of SDMs onto future climates. Future projections showed substantial loss of climatically suitable habitat. Southern populations had the greatest losses, although the biogeographic scale of modelling may overpredict extinction risks in areas of topographic complexity. Past and future SDMs were assessed for novel values of climate variables; areas of novel climate were flagged as having higher uncertainty.Main conclusionsIntegrating molecular approaches with spatial analyses of species distributions under global change has great potential to improve conservation decision-making. Molecular tools can support and improve current methods for understanding the vulnerability of species to climate change and provide additional data upon which to base conservation decisions, such as prioritizing the conservation of areas of high genetic diversity to build evolutionary resiliency within populations.