Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels
Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels
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DOI：
10.1890/08-2289.1
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发表时间：
2010-02-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Kooyman, Gerald L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ainley, David;Russell, Joellen;Kooyman, Gerald L.
我们评估了浮冰企鹅，皇帝（Aptenodytes forsteri）和阿德利（Pygoscelis adeliae）对栖息地变化的反应，然后通过模拟栖息地的变化，随着地球对流层平均温度比工业化前水平高出2摄氏度，它们的种群，大小和分布发生了质的变化。1860年），这是欧盟为减少温室气体而设定的基准。首先，我们评估了政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告（AR 4）中使用的关于企鹅表现的模型，这些模型复制了南大洋的现有条件。我们选择了四个适合测量企鹅栖息地变化的模型：GFDL-CM 2.1，GFDL-CM 2.0，MIROC 3. 2（高分辨率）和MRI-CGCM 2.3.2a。其次，我们分析了复合模型ENSEMBLE，以估计2摄氏度变暖点（2025-2052年）以及海冰覆盖率（范围，持续性和浓度），海冰厚度，风速，降水和气温的预测变化。第三，我们考虑了古代殖民地和沉积岩芯和一些最近的建模，这表明（空间/时间）大/百年尺度的企鹅栖息地限制的所有冰或无冰的研究。然后，我们认为在时间的年际-年代际尺度上的统计建模的结果，在一个连续的相当复杂的，中型到大型的栖息地条件，其中一些有相反的和其他相互作用的影响企鹅的反应。ENSEMBLE中/十年尺度输出项目预测，在2摄氏度的点上，企鹅的动物地理范围明显缩小。南纬70度以北的殖民地预计将减少或消失：类似于50%的皇帝殖民地（繁殖种群的40%）和75%的阿德利殖民地（繁殖种群的70%），但有限的增长可能发生在南纬73度以南。净变化主要是由于对高纬度冰间湖持续性增加的积极反应，而低纬度的浮冰覆盖减少，特别是帝企鹅冰的厚度减少。阿德利企鹅可能会殖民新的繁殖栖息地集中包冰分歧和/或瓦解冰架暴露海岸线。南极圈北部浮冰的持续性下降将限制这一增长，因为这一物种在其越冬地区需要日光。阿德利斯将受到降雪量增加的负面影响，预计由于极地急流的变化，温暖潮湿的海洋空气入侵，某些地区的降雪量将增加。
We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adelie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their Populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2 degrees C warming (2025-2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale Output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2 degrees C point. Colonies north of 70 degrees S are projected to decrease or disappear: similar to 50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and similar to 75% of Adelie colonies (70% of breeding Population), but limited growth might Occur south of 73 degrees S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adelie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adelies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream.