Communicating Arctic-midlatitude weather and ecosystem connections: direct observations and sources of intermittency
Communicating Arctic-midlatitude weather and ecosystem connections: direct observations and sources of intermittency
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac25bc
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发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
J. Overland;Baek‐Min Kim;Y. Tachibana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Overland;Baek‐Min Kim;Y. Tachibana
关于北极变化对中纬度极端天气的影响程度存在争议，反之亦然。部分不确定性是由于急流和极涡的联系存在间歇性，导致研究交流时侧重点不同。尽管统计研究和模型结果通常显示出较弱或不存在的联系，但我们可以提供两个观察示例。大气动力学涉及三个相互作用的物理过程：（a）内部大气急流/极涡过程，增加了波状急流的持久性； (b) 温暖潮湿的空气输送到现有的长波大气模式中； (c) 局部热力学表面强迫，通常与海冰损失有关。在最近的两项研究中，所有三个大气过程都很活跃：2016 年冬季巴伦支海和 2018 年冬季白令/楚科奇海。两者都影响了海冰损失和整个海洋生态系统食物链，并导致下游冷空气输送到中纬度地区。为了应对此类事件的重演，社会的预期是必要的。北美和东亚的例子都表明，大气和海洋物理学通过生态系统破坏与人类影响之间存在因果关系。因此，全球变暖的影响可能不仅仅是局部加热反应，而是一系列涉及急流中断的事件。
There is controversy over the extent that Arctic change can influence midlatitude extreme weather and vis-versa. Part of the uncertainty is due to the intermittency of the connection through the jet stream and polar vortex that leads to different emphases when communicating research. Although statistical studies and model results often show weak or non-existent connections, we can provide two observational examples. Three interactive physical processes are involved through atmospheric dynamics: (a) internal atmospheric jet stream/polar vortex processes that add to the persistence of a wavy jet stream; (b) warm and humid air transport into an existing longwave atmospheric pattern; and (c) local thermodynamic surface forcing, often associated with loss of sea ice. All three atmospheric processes were active in two recent studies: winter 2016 in the Barents Sea and winter 2018 in the Bering/Chukchi Sea. Both impacted sea ice loss and the entire marine ecosystem food chain, and resulted in downstream cold air transport into midlatitudes. Societal anticipation is necessary to respond to a repeat of such events. Both the North American and eastern Asia examples show a causal connection from atmospheric and ocean physics through ecosystem disruption to human impacts. Thus global warming influences can be more than a local heating response, but follow a chain of events involving disruption of the jet stream.