Climate change effects on reference crop evapotranspiration across different climatic zones of China during 1956-2015
Climate change effects on reference crop evapotranspiration across different climatic zones of China during 1956-2015
复制标题
1956-2015年气候变化对中国不同气候区参考作物蒸散量的影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.060
复制
发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Zheng, Jing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan, Junliang;Wu, Lifeng;Zheng, Jing
全球气候变化对农业生态系统的挑战越来越大，它将显著影响参考作物蒸散量（ET0），进而影响作物需水量。在中国温带大陆带（TCZ）、温带季风区（TMZ）、山地高原区（MPZ）和亚热带季风区（SMZ）共200个气象站，研究了1956-2015年中国主要气候变量的时间变化趋势、变化幅度及其对蒸散量的影响。结果表明：近60年来，各气候带的最高和最低气温均有显著升高，而相对湿度、风速和日照时数均有显著降低的趋势。年蒸散量总体减少趋势大于增加趋势，春季和冬季增加趋势更明显。气候变量和等序列的突变主要发生在90年代，而其他气候带的突变主要发生在80年代，这主要是由于近几十年来温室气体排放和能源消耗造成的大气污染的累积。相对湿度是各气候带中最敏感的气候变量，但MPZ的ET对日照时数最敏感。然而，在不同的区域和气候条件下，ET对气候变量的响应不同。风速对蒸散量减少的负贡献大于其他气候变量，而最低气温的显著升高和日照时数的减少分别对MPZ蒸散量增加和SMZ蒸散量减少的贡献最大。1956—2015年，中国的蒸散量总体呈下降趋势，但1985—2015年，除SMZ外，其他地区的蒸散量均呈显著上升趋势，特别是在旱季（春冬季），中国的干旱半干旱区。这可能会导致作物需水量的增加，并加剧这些地区的缺水问题，因为气候变化导致ET0增加。(C) 2016 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Global climate change has been an increasing challenge to agricultural ecosystems, which will significantly affect the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and subsequently crop water requirements. In this study, the temporal trends and magnitudes of key climatic variables and the accompanying effects on ET0 during 1956-2015 were evaluated at 200 meteorological stations across the temperate continental zone (TCZ), temperate monsoon zone (TMZ), mountain plateau zone (MPZ), and subtropical monsoon zone (SMZ) of China. Results show that maximum and minimum temperatures have increased significantly over the past 60 years, whilst relative humidity, wind speed and sunshine hour exhibited significant decreasing trends across all climatic zones. The overall decreasing trends in annual ET0 were more pronounced than the increasing trends, whereas more increasing trends were found in spring and winter. Abrupt changes for climatic variables and ETc, series were detected in 1990s in the MPZ, while in 1980s in the other climatic zones mainly due to the aggregated emission of greenhouse gases and air pollution from energy consumption in recent decades. Relative humidity was the most sensitive climatic variable in all climatic zones except for the MPZ where ET was most sensitive to sunshine hour. However, ET had different responses to changing climatic variables in different regions and climatic conditions. The negative contribution of wind speed to the decrease in ET0 was greater than the other climatic variables in the TCZ and the TMZ, whilst the significant increase in minimum temperature and the decrease in sunshine hour contributed most to increasing ET0 in the MPZ and to decreasing ET0 in the SMZ, respectively. Although ET0 displayed a generally decreasing trend during 1956-2015, there was a significantly increasing trend from 1985 to 2015 across China except for the SMZ, especially in the arid and semi-arid zones of China during dry seasons (spring and winter). This may lead to the increase in crop water requirements and aggravate the water shortage in these areas in view of the increase in ET0 in response to ongoing climate change. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.