Insolation Forecasting Using Weather Forecast with Weather Change Patterns
Insolation Forecasting Using Weather Forecast with Weather Change Patterns
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使用具有天气变化模式的天气预报进行日照预报
DOI：
10.1541/ieejpes.127.1219
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Kurokawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Shimada;K. Kurokawa
本文提出了一种用于光伏发电功率预测的日照预测方法。该方法利用每3小时的天气预报，每1小时预报一次全球辐照度。根据天气变化规律，将天气预报分为14种天气变化类型，提高了太阳辐射预报的精度。根据测量数据和东京公布的天气预报，对预测精度进行了检验。结果表明，利用天气变化型，逐时预报的平均绝对误差率从32.6%降到30.2%，逐日预报的平均绝对误差率从24.7%降到23.5%。结果还表明，随着天气预报准确率的提高，东京每小时预报的误差率有可能降低到24.5%，每日预报的误差率有可能降低到17.8%。
This paper reports an insolation forecasting method for photovoltaic power predictions. The method of proposal forecasts the global irradiance every one hour by using weather forecast every three hours. The weather forecast is classified into 14 kinds of weather change categories by weather change patterns, and the insolation forecasting accuracy is improved. The forecasting accuracy was examined based on the measurement data and the weather forecast announced in Tokyo. In the result, using weather change patterns decrease mean absolute error ratio of hourly forecasting from 32.6 to 30.2% and the error ratio of daily forecasting from 24.7 to 23.5%. The result also shows the possibility that the error ratio of hourly forecasting is decreased to 24.5% and the error ratio of daily forecasting is decreased to 17.8% in Tokyo when the weather forecast accuracy is improved.