Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Lumpy Skin Disease in the Middle East, 2012-2015.
Spatial and Temporal Epidemiology of Lumpy Skin Disease in the Middle East, 2012-2015.
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DOI：
10.3389/fvets.2016.00019
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
VanderWaal K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alkhamis MA;VanderWaal K
结节性皮肤病病毒（LSDV）是一种牛的传染病，可产生严重的经济影响。新的LSD疫情目前正在中东（ME）流行。自2012年以来，该地区报告了牛的严重疫情。描述LSDV在牛群中的时空动态是指导ME区域一级成功监测和控制工作的先决条件。在这里，我们的目标是模拟LSDV的生态位，并确定在流行过程中的流行进展模式。我们分析了2012-2015年期间ME的可用爆发数据，使用仅存在最大熵生态位模型和时间依赖性方法估计有效繁殖数（R-TD）。通过生态位模型确定的LSDV高风险地区（概率>0.60）包括许多东北部ME国家的部分地区，尽管以色列和土耳其估计是LSDV爆发的最合适地点。影响LSDV生态位的最重要的环境因子包括年降水量、土地覆盖、平均日较差、畜牧生产系统类型和全球牲畜密度。平均月有效R-TD等于2.2（95%CI：1.2，3.5），而2013年9月估计的最大R-TD在以色列（R-TD = 22.2，95%CI：15.2，31.5），这表明该时期的人口和环境条件适合LSDV超级传播事件。以色列推断的R-TD在接下来的一个月急剧下降，反映了他们2013年疫苗接种活动在控制疾病方面的成功。我们的研究结果确定了可能发生LSDV疫情漏报的地区。需要更多的流行病学信息，牛的人口，以进一步改善推断的空间和时间特征，目前正在流行的LSDV。然而，这里提出的方法可能是有用的，在指导设计的风险为基础的监测和控制方案，在该地区以及援助在制定流行病的准备计划，在邻近的无LSDV的国家。
Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle that can have severe economic implications. New LSD outbreaks are currently circulating in the Middle East (ME). Since 2012, severe outbreaks were reported in cattle across the region. Characterizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of LSDV in cattle populations is prerequisite for guiding successful surveillance and control efforts at a regional level in the ME. Here, we aim to model the ecological niche of LSDV and identify epidemic progression patterns over the course of the epidemic. We analyzed publically available outbreak data from the ME for the period 2012–2015 using presence-only maximum entropy ecological niche modeling and the time-dependent method for the estimation of the effective reproductive number (R-TD). High-risk areas (probability >0.60) for LSDV identified by ecological niche modeling included parts of many northeastern ME countries, though Israel and Turkey were estimated to be the most suitable locations for occurrence of LSDV outbreaks. The most important environmental predictors that contributed to the ecological niche of LSDV included annual precipitation, land cover, mean diurnal range, type of livestock production system, and global livestock densities. Average monthly effective R-TD was equal to 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2, 3.5), whereas the largest R-TD was estimated in Israel (R-TD = 22.2, 95 CI: 15.2, 31.5) in September 2013, which indicated that the demographic and environmental conditions during this period were suitable to LSDV super-spreading events. The sharp drop of Isreal’s inferred R-TD in the following month reflected the success of their 2013 vaccination campaign in controlling the disease. Our results identified areas in which underreporting of LSDV outbreaks may have occurred. More epidemiological information related to cattle populations are needed to further improve the inferred spatial and temporal characteristics of currently circulating LSDV. However, the methodology presented here may be useful in guiding the design of risk-based surveillance and control programs in the region as well as aid in the formulation of epidemic preparedness plans in neighboring LSDV-free countries.