Centennial‐Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability
Centennial‐Scale Shifts in Storm Frequency Captured in Paleohurricane Records From The Bahamas Arise Predominantly From Random Variability
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl091145
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
E. Wallace;S. Coats;K. Emanuel;J. Donnelly
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Wallace;S. Coats;K. Emanuel;J. Donnelly
基于事件的上个千年的古飓风重建表明，百年时间尺度上登陆飓风的频率发生了巨大变化。很难评估这些古记录中的变异性是否与气候变化或随机性有关。我们评估百年尺度的强烈飓风活动的活跃和平静间隔是否发生在一组合成风暴中，这些风暴的边界条件来自上个千年的地球系统模型模拟。我们生成1,000个伪沉积记录南安德罗斯岛使用泊松随机抽取从这个合成风暴数据集。我们发现，任何一个单一的假沉积记录包含了活跃和平静的飓风活动的时间间隔。1,000个记录的集合平均值反映了气候变化的共同信号，但却没有。这表明，巴哈马的古飓风活动记录反映了飓风频率的变化，这种变化主要是随机性，而不是气候条件的变化。
Event‐based paleohurricane reconstructions of the last millennium indicate dramatic changes in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes on centennial timescales. It is difficult to assess whether the variability captured in these paleorecords is related to changing climate or randomness. We assess whether centennial‐scale active and quiet intervals of intense hurricane activity occur in a set of synthetic storms run with boundary conditions from an earth system model simulation of the last millennium. We generate 1,000 pseudo sedimentary records for a site on South Andros Island using a Poisson random draw from this synthetic storm data set. We find that any single pseudo sedimentary record contains active and quiet intervals of hurricane activity. The 1,000‐record ensemble average, which reflects the common signal of climate variability, does not. This suggests that the record of paleohurricane activity from The Bahamas reflects variability in hurricane frequency dominated by randomness and not variability in the climatic conditions.