The Influence of Atmospheric Noise and Uncertainty in Ocean Initial Conditions on the Limit of Predictability in a Coupled GCM
The Influence of Atmospheric Noise and Uncertainty in Ocean Initial Conditions on the Limit of Predictability in a Coupled GCM
复制标题
大气噪声和海洋初始条件的不确定性对耦合 GCM 的可预测性极限的影响
DOI：
10.1175/2007jcli2071.1
复制
发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
B. Kirtman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Stan;B. Kirtman
通过对两种不同耦合策略的理想同卵双生预报试验的比较，量化了大气随机强迫和初始条件的不确定性对NCEP气候预报系统(CFS)可预报极限的影响。在被称为交互集合的第一种方法中，单个海洋环流模式(GCM；GFDL的模块化海洋模式版本3)与大气GCM(NCEP全球预报系统)的多个实现(在这种情况下是6个集合成员)的集合平均相耦合。在第二种方法中，使用标准的CFS。交互集合的设计是为了通过海气界面的集合平均来减少与海表面温度异常无关的内部大气动力起伏，而在标准的CFS中，大气噪声(即随机强迫)在耦合系统的演化中起着积极的作用。在同卵双胞胎的体验中。
Abstract The influence of atmospheric stochastic forcing and uncertainty in initial conditions on the limit of predictability of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is quantified based on comparisons of idealized identical twin prediction experiments using two different coupling strategies. In the first method, called the interactive ensemble, a single oceanic general circulation model (GCM; the Modular Ocean Model version 3 of GFDL) is coupled to the ensemble average of multiple realizations (in this case six ensemble members) of an atmospheric GCM (NCEP Global Forecast System). In the second method the standard CFS is used. The interactive ensemble is specifically designed to reduce the internal atmospheric dynamic fluctuations that are unrelated to the sea surface temperature anomalies via ensemble averaging at the air–sea interface, whereas in the standard CFS, the atmospheric noise (i.e., stochastic forcing) plays an active role in the evolution of the coupled system. In the identical twin experim...