Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs.
Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.013
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发表时间：
2016-08-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
White PC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bate AM;Jones G;Kleczkowski A;MacLeod A;Naylor R;Timmis J;Touza J;White PC
植物贸易是植物病原菌传播的重要途径。我们建立了一个苗圃的模型，该苗圃不断地购买、种植和销售潜在的受感染植物。分析结果给出了两种管理工具的最佳水平：限制和移除。对于传染性不强的疾病，可以用移除和限制来替代。对于高度传染性的疾病，去除和限制可以是补充。观赏植物贸易已被认为是植物病原菌的主要传入途径。因此，建立有效的生物安全措施，以减少活植物贸易中植物病原体暴发的风险是重要的。侵袭性病原体的管理已被确定为最薄弱的一环公共产品，因此依赖于个别私人代理人的行动。因此，本文分析了私人代理人的生物安全决定对植物贸易中病原体预防和控制的影响。我们模拟了传染病对苗圃的影响，在持续不断的潜在感染输入植物材料的压力下，如种子和树苗，疾病的传播降低了成熟植物的价值。我们探索了六种情景，以了解三个关键生物经济参数的影响：疾病的基本繁殖数量，成熟植物因感染而损失的价值，以及限制的成本效益。结果描述了苗圃内的疾病动态，并探索了限制策略(防止购买受感染投入物的行动)和苗圃中移除受感染植物的最佳努力水平之间的权衡和协同效应。对于容易控制的疾病，限制和清除是可替代的策略。相比之下，对于高传染性疾病，限制和清除往往是相辅相成的，前提是限制是具有成本效益的，并且清除的最佳水平不是零。
The plant trade is an important pathway for the spread of plant pathogens. We model a nursery that constantly buys, grows and sells potentially infected plants Analytic results give optimal levels of two management tools, restriction and removal. For not very infectious diseases, removal and restriction are substitutes. For highly infectious diseases, removal and restriction can be complements. The ornamental plant trade has been identified as a key introduction pathway for plant pathogens. Establishing effective biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of plant pathogen outbreaks in the live plant trade is therefore important. Management of invasive pathogens has been identified as a weakest link public good, and thus is reliant on the actions of individual private agents. This paper therefore provides an analysis of the impact of the private agents’ biosecurity decisions on pathogen prevention and control within the plant trade. We model the impact that an infectious disease has on a plant nursery under a constant pressure of potentially infected input plant materials, like seeds and saplings, where the spread of the disease reduces the value of mature plants. We explore six scenarios to understand the influence of three key bioeconomic parameters; the disease's basic reproductive number, the loss in value of a mature plant from acquiring an infection and the cost-effectiveness of restriction. The results characterise the disease dynamics within the nursery and explore the trade-offs and synergies between the optimal level of efforts on restriction strategies (actions to prevent buying infected inputs), and on removal of infected plants in the nursery. For diseases that can be easily controlled, restriction and removal are substitutable strategies. In contrast, for highly infectious diseases, restriction and removal are often found to be complementary, provided that restriction is cost-effective and the optimal level of removal is non-zero.