Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?
Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?
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DOI：
10.1093/oxrep/graa015
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Zenghelis, Dimitri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hepburn, Cameron;O'Callaghan, Brian;Zenghelis, Dimitri
COVID-19 危机可能会对气候变化的进展产生巨大影响。即将出台的财政复苏计划可能会巩固或部分取代当前的化石燃料密集型经济体系。在这里，我们对来自 G20 国家的 231 名央行官员、财政部官员和其他经济专家进行了调查，调查了 25 种主要财政复苏原型在四个维度上的相对表现：实施速度、经济乘数、气候影响潜力和总体愿望。我们确定了五项在经济乘数和气候影响指标方面都具有巨大潜力的政策：清洁的有形基础设施、建筑效率改造、教育和培训投资、自然资本投资和清洁研发。在中低收入国家（LMIC），农村支持支出具有特殊价值，而清洁研发则不太重要。这些建议是通过分析 COVID-19 对温室气体减排的短期影响以及人类和机构习惯和行为的合理中期变化而提出的。
The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system. Here, we survey 231 central bank officials, finance ministry officials, and other economic experts from G20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R&D is less important. These recommendations are contextualized through analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions.