SEVENTY-TWO TESTS OF THE SEQUENTIAL LINEUP SUPERIORITY EFFECT: A Meta-Analysis and Policy Discussion
SEVENTY-TWO TESTS OF THE SEQUENTIAL LINEUP SUPERIORITY EFFECT: A Meta-Analysis and Policy Discussion
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DOI：
10.1037/a0021650
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Wells, Gary L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Steblay, Nancy K.;Dysart, Jennifer E.;Wells, Gary L.
十年前，一项荟萃分析表明，从顺序列队中识别嫌疑人比从同时列队中识别嫌疑人更能诊断有罪（Steblay，Dysart，Fulero，&林赛，2001）。从那时起，关于顺序优越性的争议和辩论就出现了。我们报告了一项新的荟萃分析的结果，该分析涉及来自23个不同实验室的72个同时和顺序排队测试，涉及113，143名参与者-证人。结果与2001年的结果非常相似，表明顺序列队不太可能导致识别嫌疑人，但也比同时列队更能诊断有罪。对完整诊断设计数据集（使用完整同步/序贯X罪犯存在/罪犯不存在设计的27个测试）的检查显示，正确识别的平均差距有利于同步阵容而不是序贯阵容-8%-小于从2001年荟萃分析（以及从当前完整的72个测试数据集）获得的15%数字。使用顺序格式的罪犯缺席阵容所产生的较低错误率多年来保持一致，比同时阵容少22%的错误。贝叶斯分析表明，在罪犯存在/不存在的整个基本比率上，在识别嫌疑人之后的有罪的后验概率对于顺序阵容来说更高。讨论了思考政策问题的新方法。
A decade ago, a meta-analysis showed that identification of a suspect from a sequential lineup versus a simultaneous lineup was more diagnostic of guilt (Steblay, Dysart, Fulero, & Lindsay, 2001). Since then, controversy and debate regarding sequential superiority has emerged. We report the results of a new meta-analysis involving 72 tests of simultaneous and sequential lineups from 23 different labs involving 113,143 participant-witnesses. The results are very similar to the 2001 results in showing that the sequential lineup is less likely to result in an identification of the suspect, but also more diagnostic of guilt than is the simultaneous lineup. An examination of the full diagnostic design dataset (27 tests that used the full simultaneous/sequential X culprit-present/culprit-absent design) showed that the average gap in correct identifications favoring the simultaneous lineup over the sequential lineup-8%-is smaller than the 15% figure obtained from the 2001 meta-analysis (and from the current full 72-test dataset). The lower error rate incurred for culprit-absent lineups with use of a sequential format remains consistent across the years, with 22% fewer errors than simultaneous lineups. A Bayesian analysis shows that the posterior probability of guilt following an identification of the suspect is higher for the sequential lineup across the entire base rate for culprit presence/absence. New ways to think about policy issues are discussed.