Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe
Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe
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DOI：
10.1029/2010wr010299
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发表时间：
2011-07
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
M. Huss
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Huss
冰川对欧洲大型流域径流的贡献是针对阿尔卑斯山脉的主要河流进行分析的：莱茵河、罗纳河、波河和多瑙河。有关冰川储量变化的详细信息可从1908-2008年期间50个瑞士冰川的每月质量平衡数据中获得。储存量的变化外推到欧洲阿尔卑斯山的所有冰川。通过比较夏季月份冰川化表面的月径流量与沿整个河流长度沿着测量的径流量，计算出每个月冰川蓄水量变化的相对水量。在上个世纪，100，000平方公里（1%的冰覆盖）的大尺度流域可以显示出25%的冰川对8月径流的贡献。在多瑙河下游（0.06%的冰川化）冰川融水占9%的观测径流在9月的极端年2003年。冰川对径流贡献的相对重要性并不与冰川化的百分比成线性比例，因为夏季高冰川径流主导着降水量少、蒸散量高的低地地区。因此，冰川融水与大尺度流域的水文状况有关，而不仅仅具有区域影响。通过使用气候情景对2100年前的冰川退缩进行瞬态模拟，发现阿尔卑斯山的冰川化面积将减少到目前的12%，因此，目前冰川化流域的夏季径流贡献将大大减少，加剧了冰川化程度低的流域夏季缺水的问题。
The contribution of glaciers to runoff from large‐scale drainage basins in Europe is analyzed for the major streams originating in the Alps: Rhine, Rhone, Po, and Danube. Detailed information on glacier storage change is available from monthly mass balance data of 50 Swiss glaciers for the period 1908–2008. Storage changes are extrapolated to all glaciers in the European Alps. By comparing monthly runoff yields from glacierized surfaces in the summer months with measured runoff at gauges along the entire length of the streams, the relative portion of water from glacier storage change for each month is calculated. Macroscale drainage basins with a size of 100,000 km2 (1% ice‐covered) can show a 25% contribution of glaciers to August runoff over the last century. In the lower Danube (0.06% glacierization) glacier meltwater accounts for 9% of observed runoff in September of the extreme year 2003. The relative importance of glacier contribution to runoff does not scale linearly with the percentage of glacierization, as high glacier runoff in summer dominates lowland areas with little precipitation and high evapotranspiration. Thus, glacial meltwaters are relevant to the hydrological regime of macroscale watersheds and do not only have a regional impact. By transiently modeling future glacier retreat until 2100 using climate scenarios, a reduction of glacierized areas in the Alps to 12% of the current value is found. In consequence, summer runoff contribution from currently glacierized basins will be strongly reduced, intensifying issues with water shortage in summer also in poorly glacierized catchments.