Parallel particle filters for online identification of mechanistic mathematical models of physiology from monitoring data: performance and real-time scalability in simulation scenarios.
Parallel particle filters for online identification of mechanistic mathematical models of physiology from monitoring data: performance and real-time scalability in simulation scenarios.
复制标题
用于根据监测数据在线识别生理学机械数学模型的并行粒子滤波器：模拟场景中的性能和实时可扩展性。
DOI：
10.1007/s10877-010-9252-2
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Zenker,Sven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zenker,Sven
ObjectiveCombining mechanistic mathematical models of physiology with quantitative observations using probabilistic inference may offer advantages over established approaches to computerized decision support in acute care medicine. Particle filters (PF) can perform such inference successively as data becomes available. The potential of PF for real-time state estimation (SE) for a model of cardiovascular physiology is explored using parallel computers and the ability to achieve joint state and parameter estimation (JSPE) given minimal prior knowledge tested.MethodsA parallelized sequential importance sampling/resampling algorithm was implemented and its scalability for the pure SE problem for a non-linear five-dimensional ODE model of the cardiovascular system evaluated on a Cray XT3™ using up to 1,024 cores. JSPE was implemented using a state augmentation approach with artificial stochastic evolution of the parameters. Its performance when simultaneously estimating the 5 states and 18 unknown parameters when given observations only of arterial pressure, central venous pressure, heart rate, and, optionally, cardiac output, was evaluated in a simulated bleeding/resuscitation scenario.ResultsSE was successful and scaled up to 1,024 cores with appropriate algorithm parametrization, with real-time equivalent performance for up to 10 million particles. JSPE in the described underdetermined scenario achieved excellent reproduction of observables and qualitative tracking of enddiastolic ventricular volumes and sympathetic nervous activity. However, only a subset of the posterior distributions of parameters concentrated around the true values for parts of the estimated trajectories.ConclusionsParallelized PF’s performance makes their application to complex mathematical models of physiology for the purpose of clinical data interpretation, prediction, and therapy optimization appear promising. JSPE in the described extremely underdetermined scenario nevertheless extracted information of potential clinical relevance from the data in this simulation setting. However, fully satisfactory resolution of this problem when minimal prior knowledge about parameter values is available will require further methodological improvements, which are discussed.
