Can the ageing North benefit from expanding trade with the South?
Can the ageing North benefit from expanding trade with the South?
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老龄化的北方能否从扩大与南方的贸易中受益？
DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.008
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Georges P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Georges P
在这份文件中，我们估计了老龄化的北方国家将一些贸易多样化，从其他北方国家转向南方国家的好处。为此，我们使用了考虑到21世纪的人口趋势和贸易模式的六个区域的世代重叠模式。我们的研究表明，老龄化的北方国家可以通过显著改善贸易条件，从“富化腐朽”中受益。我们估计，如果朝鲜扩大与韩国的贸易，铀浓缩腐烂能在多大程度上得到支持。例如，在欧洲和日本，适当的贸易多元化战略可能会分别支撑2%和2.4%的实际人均消费。
In this paper we estimate the benefit for the ageing North countries of diversifying some of their trade away from other North countries in favour of South countries. To this end we use a six-region overlapping generations model that takes into account the demographic trends of the 21st century and trade patterns. We show that ageing North countries can benefit from “enriching decay” through significant improvement in terms of trade. We estimate to what extent enriching decay can be bolstered if the North expands trade with the South. In Europe and Japan, for instance, an appropriate trade diversification strategy may prop up real per capita consumption by 2% and 2.4% respectively.