Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends
Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2008.0138
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发表时间：
2008-11-13
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Bows, Alice
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson, Kevin;Bows, Alice
2007 年巴厘岛会议多次呼吁到 2050 年将全球温室气体排放量减少 50%，以避免超过 2 摄氏度的阈值。虽然此类终点目标在政策议程中占据主导地位，但它们单独而言没有科学依据，并且可能导致危险的误导性政策。为了在科学上可信，政策必须通过了解累积排放量和相关排放途径来制定。该分析考虑了 2 摄氏度阈值和一系列峰后减排率对全球排放路径和累积排放预算的影响。本文研究了 2000 年至 2008 年期间（通常在情景研究中建模的时期）温室气体排放的经验估计，结合当前排放趋势的短期外推，是否显着限制了 2000 年至 2100 年的排放路径。该文件的结论是，任何全球协议越来越不可能彻底扭转排放趋势，以稳定在 450 ppmv 二氧化碳当量 (CO(2)e) 所需的排放趋势。同样，当前的气候变化框架与稳定在 550 ppmv CO(2)e 所需的缓解率不符，甚至乐观的解释也表明稳定在远低于 650 ppmv CO(2)e 的可能性不大。
The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000 - 2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO(2)e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO(2)e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO(2)e is improbable.