Annual Risk Assessment for Overload Security
Annual Risk Assessment for Overload Security
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DOI：
10.1109/59.962405
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发表时间：
2001-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Youjie Dai;J. McCalley;Nicholas Abi-Samra;Vijay Vittal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Youjie Dai;J. McCalley;Nicholas Abi-Samra;Vijay Vittal
提出了一种评估与过载安全相关的累积风险的方法，用于中期电力系统规划。这项工作的动机是需要完善大规模电力系统可靠性评估，以满足重组后的行业的需求。这项工作有两个主要贡献。首先，评估是在长达一年的每小时运行条件轨迹上执行的，从而对所有预期条件进行可靠性评估，而不仅仅是有限数量的快照。其次，通过由概率和后果的总和组成的风险指数来量化评估。这一指标是实际可靠性水平的良好指标，它是可分解的，可以有效地融入经济决策范式。使用1996年的IEEE可靠性测试系统说明了这项工作。
This paper presents an approach to assess the cumulative risk associated with overload security for the purposes of midterm power system planning. The work is motivated by a need to refine bulk power system reliability assessment to meet the needs of the restructured industry. There are two main contributions to the work. First, the assessment is performed over a year-long trajectory of hourly operating conditions, resulting in reliability assessment of all expected conditions and not just a limited number of snapshots. Secondly, the assessment is quantified by a risk index comprised of summed products of probability and consequence. This index is a good indicator of the actual reliability level, it is decomposable, and it can be effectively integrated into economic decision-making paradigms. The work is illustrated using the 1996 IEEE Reliability Test System.