Long-Term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison
Long-Term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00584.1
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发表时间：
2013-08
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
K. Zickfeld;M. Eby;A. Weaver;K. Alexander;E. Crespin;N. Edwards;A. Eliseev;G. Feulner;T. Fichefet-T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Zickfeld;M. Eby;A. Weaver;K. Alexander;E. Crespin;N. Edwards;A. Eliseev;G. Feulner;T. Fichefet-T.
摘要本文总结了一个与中等复杂性地球系统模型（EMIC）的相互比较项目的结果，该项目是为支持政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第五次评估报告（AR 5）而进行的。重点是长期气候预测，旨在1）量化不同辐射强迫轨迹的气候变化承诺，2）探索气候变化在人类时间尺度上的可逆程度。所有承诺模拟都遵循四个代表性的浓度路径及其延伸到2300年。大多数EMIC模拟了大气成分稳定在2300年水平后地表空气温度和热空间海平面的大幅上升。在RCPs 2.6-6.0的大多数模式中，纬向翻转环流（MOC）暂时减弱并恢复到接近工业化前的值。对于RCP 8.5，MOC减弱更为持久。消除2300年后的人为二氧化碳排放
AbstractThis paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 resu...