Behavior Policies and Teen Traffic Safety
Behavior Policies and Teen Traffic Safety
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行为政策和青少年交通安全
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Evans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Dee;W. Evans
交通死亡是青少年和年轻人死亡的主要原因，占 15 至 20 岁年龄段所有死亡人数的三分之一。青少年死亡率中很大一部分归因于汽车出行并不完全出乎意料。驾驶本质上是一项危险活动，青少年很少死于其他非暴力原因。然而，青少年也面临着与交通相关的风险，这些风险远远高于年长且经验丰富的驾驶员。例如，青少年交通死亡率（定义为每人口中 16-19 岁的死亡人数）几乎是 25 岁及以上成年人死亡率的两倍。由于青少年开车的次数少于成年人，因此以行驶里程计算时，该比率增加到接近 2.5。尽管这些数字发人深省，但青少年交通安全在过去 20 年中已得到显着改善。自 1979 年以来，青少年交通死亡率下降了 37%。大部分下降发生在 1986 年至 1992 年期间，当时利率下降了 25%。青少年死亡率的下降幅度远大于 25 岁及以上成年人的同期变化，后者的死亡率在 1979 年至 1997 年期间下降了 22%，在 1986 年至 1992 年期间下降了 13%。当人们考虑到青少年对汽车的依赖程度越来越高时，他们的相对进步就更加令人印象深刻。 1983 年至 1995 年间，16 至 19 岁青少年的汽车行驶里程几乎增加了一倍。以车辆行驶里程计算时，自 1983 年以来青少年死亡率已下降 50%。青少年交通安全方面的进步可能反映了多种原因。例如，在此期间，汽车耐撞性方面取得了一些进展（例如改进设计、增加汽车重量、引入安全气囊）。然而，这些改进似乎也反映出驾驶风险的减少，特别是安全带使用的增加和酒后驾驶的减少。在这项研究中，我们通过讨论交通死亡人数的简化模型，提供了一些关于国家关键政策在促进这些成果方面的有效性的证据。我们还考虑了一项重要政策（最低法定饮酒年龄）的救生效果是否因与酒精相关的交通风险可能转移到青年时期而减弱。
Traffic fatalities are the leading cause of death among teens and young adults, accounting for one-third of all deaths among those 15–20 years of age. The large share of teen mortality attributed to car travel is not entirely unexpected. Driving is an inherently risky activity, and teens rarely die of other nonviolent causes. However, teens also face levels of traffic-related risk that are substantially higher than those of older, more experienced drivers. For example, the teen traffic fatality rate (defined as deaths of 16–19-year-olds per population) is nearly double the rate for adults aged 25 and older. Since teens drive less than adults, this ratio increases to nearly 2.5 when denominated by miles of travel. While these are sobering numbers, teen traffic safety has improved considerably over the past 20 years. Since 1979, the teen traffic fatality rate has fallen by 37 percent. Much of this drop occurred in the 1986–1992 period when rates fell 25 percent. These decreases in teen fatality rates are much larger than the contemporaneous changes for adults aged 25 and older, whose fatality rates fell by 22 percent in the 1979–1997 period, and by 13 percent over the 1986–1992 time frame. The relative improvements of teens are even more impressive when one considers that they have become increasingly dependent on the automobile. Between 1983 and 1995, vehicle miles traveled by teens aged 16–19 nearly doubled. When denominated by vehicle miles traveled, teen fatality rates have fallen by 50 percent since 1983. The gains in teen traffic safety are likely to reflect a number of causes. For example, over this period, there were several advances in car crash-worthiness (e.g., improved designs, increased car weight, the introduction of air bags). However, these improvements also appear to reflect a reduction in risk-taking behind the wheel, in particular, increases in seat-belt use and reductions in drunk driving. In this study, we present some evidence on the efficacy of key state policies in promoting these gains by discussing reduced-form models of traffic fatalities. We also consider whether the life-saving effects of an important policy, minimum legal drinking ages, have been attenuated by a possible shift of alcohol-related traffic risks to young adulthood.