Weather Index Insurance Can Offset Heat‐Induced Rice Losses Under Global Warming
Weather Index Insurance Can Offset Heat‐Induced Rice Losses Under Global Warming
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DOI：
10.1029/2021ef002534
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发表时间：
2022-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Zhang;Z. Zhang;C. Z. Wang;X. Wang;L. L. Zhang-L.;X. Ma;F. Tao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Zhang;Z. Zhang;C. Z. Wang;X. Wang;L. L. Zhang-L.;X. Ma;F. Tao
极端高温是与变暖相关的对粮食安全和农民生计的主要威胁，特别是在亚洲。作为一种经济适应措施，天气指数保险（WII）可以转移此类与天气相关的风险，确保农场收入，并在产量损失后尽快恢复农业系统。然而，很少有相关研究评估其在变暖的未来中的潜力。在这里，我们研究了中国南方（世界上典型的小农主导的水稻生产区）在 SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5（共享社会经济路径，SSP）下 WII 补偿未来热引起的产量损失 ( YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ ) 的效率。将作物模型与机器学习相结合，我们发现热诱导的水稻脆弱性表现出很大的空间变异性。水稻脆弱性和变暖情景共同决定了未来的 YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ 和县级经济损失，中远未来 (2051-2100) 的损失比近期 (2021-2050) 的损失更为严重。与历史时期（1961-2010）相比，YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ 在 SSP1-2.6 下将增加约 5%，在 SSP3-7.0% 下增加 18%，在 SSP5-8.5 下增加 26%。作为一项事前策略，尽管纯保险费率到 2050 年将增加 10%，到 2100 年将增加 30%，但县域 WII 将有效提高（最多 13%）和稳定（最多 36%）农民收入。总体而言，我们的研究表明，WII 是未来帮助发展中国家小农生计的有效经济适应措施。 WII 有潜力应用于其他国家解决其他农作物歉收问题，以减轻未来全球粮食系统与气候相关的风险。
Extreme heat is one major warming‐related threat to food security and farmers' livelihood, especially in Asia. As an economic adaptation, weather index insurance (WII) can transfer such weather‐related risks, secure farms' incomes, and recover agricultural systems soon after yield losses. However, few relevant studies evaluate its potential in the warming future. Here, we investigated the efficiency of WII to compensate for future heat‐induced yield losses ( YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ ) under SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5 (Shared Socioecomoic Pathways, SSP) in southern China, a typical smallholder‐dominated rice production area in the world. Combining a crop model with machine learning, we found that heat‐induced rice vulnerability showed large spatial variability. Rice vulnerability and warming scenarios co‐determined future YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ and economic losses at the county scale, with more significant losses in the mid‐far future (2051–2100) than in the near future (2021–2050). Compared with the historical period (1961–2010), YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ will increase approximately by up to 5% under SSP1‐2.6, 18% under SSP3‐7.0%, and 26% under SSP5‐8.5. As an ex‐ante strategy, county‐specific WII will effectively improve (by up to 13%) and stabilize (by up to 36%) farmers' incomes, even though the pure premium rate will increase by 10% at 2050 and by 30% at 2100. Overall, our study demonstrates that WII is an effective economic adaption in the future for assisting smallholder livelihood in a developing country. WII has the potential to be applied in other countries for other crop failures to mitigate climate‐related risk for global food systems in the future.