Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States
Climate change and extreme weather: A review focusing on the continental United States
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DOI：
10.1080/10962247.2021.1942319
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发表时间：
2021-06
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
W. Robinson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
W. Robinson
人类活动排放的温室气体正在使地球变暖。气候变化对人类和自然系统的最大影响可能来自日益频繁和严重的极端天气和气候事件。已经发现这种极端情况有所增加，预计随着地球变暖，这种趋势将继续下去。在这里，我们回顾了极端天气增加的总体气候驱动因素，并讨论了极端天气发生的背景以及预测未来变化的挑战。气候驱动的极端事件增加的观测证据和模式预测的影响进行了审查的热和干旱和几种类型的风暴：热带气旋，中纬度风暴，和严重的地方天气，重点是那些最相关的变化，美国大陆。我们强调极端天气的总体观测和模拟趋势，我们对此有最大的信心，因为它们与我们对天气和气候的基本理解一致。尽管在许多细节上仍然存在不确定性，特别是在基于模型的预测中，但极端事件增加的信号已经足够清楚，需要人类做出强有力的反应，限制未来温室气体的排放，并使我们的人类系统更能适应地球继续变暖不可避免的进一步变化。含义：通过将观测到的和预测的极端天气变化置于我们对物理学和统计学的基本理解的背景下，这篇评论清楚地表明，这些变化是重大而有影响的，需要人类做出强有力的反应。
ABSTRACT Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the Earth. It is likely that the greatest impacts of climate change on human and natural systems will come from increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events. Some increases in such extremes are already being detected, and this trend is projected to continue as Earth warms. Here we review the overarching climate drivers of increases in extreme weather and address the context in which extremes occur and the challenges of projecting future changes. The observational evidence for climate-driven increases in extremes and the implications of model projections are reviewed for heat and drought and several types of storms: tropical cyclones, midlatitude storms, and severe local weather, focusing on those changes most relevant to the continental United States. We emphasize the overall observed and modeled trends in extreme weather in which we have the greatest confidence, because they are consistent with our fundamental understanding of weather and climate. Despite remaining uncertainty about many details, especially in model-based projections, the signal of increasing extremes is sufficiently clear that it demands a robust human response, in limiting future emissions of greenhouse gases and in making our human systems more resilient to further changes that are inevitable as Earth continues to warm. Implications: By placing observed and projected changes in extreme weather in the context of our fundamental understanding of physics and statistics, this review makes it clear that these are significant and impactful changes that demand a robust human response.