Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation
Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0602447103
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发表时间：
2006-08-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Chan, Kung-Sik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stenseth, Nils Chr.;Samia, Noelle I.;Chan, Kung-Sik
鼠疫耶尔森氏菌引起淋巴腺鼠疫。在中亚，人类鼠疫仍然定期报告，这种细菌在大沙鼠的自然种群中很常见。通过使用1949-1995年的现场数据和以前没有描述过的统计技术，我们表明Y。沙鼠的鼠疫流行率随着温暖的春季和潮湿的夏季而增加：预计春季VC的增加会导致流行率增加> 50%。在黑死病爆发时，该地区的气候条件显然有利于鼠疫，而最近的鼠疫大流行也发生在同一地区，由于气候变化，这些气候条件预计将继续存在或变得更加有利。因此，在人类与携带地方性鼠疫的啮齿动物和跳蚤（或其他野生动物）密切接触的地方，爆发鼠疫的威胁可能会增加。
The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A VC increase in spring is predicted to lead to a > 50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.