A geographically and temporally weighted regression model for assessing intra-urban variability of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Yangpu district, Shanghai
A geographically and temporally weighted regression model for assessing intra-urban variability of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in Yangpu district, Shanghai
复制标题
用于评估上海市杨浦区挥发性有机化合物（VOC）城市内变异性的地理和时间加权回归模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.06.052
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Fu Hongbo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cui Lulu;Li Rui;Zhang Yunchen;Meng Ya;Zhao Yilong;Fu Hongbo
挥发性有机化合物（VOC）对健康的不利影响凸显了流行病学研究中需要时空模型来评估暴露情况。本文开发了地理和时间加权回归 (GTWR) 模型来估计中国上海杨浦 (YP) 区的 VOC 的空间变异性，包括丙酮、苯、甲苯和间/对二甲苯。 GTWR模型显示出良好的预测性能，丙酮、苯、甲苯、间/对二甲苯的交叉验证（CV）R2分别=0.60、0.75、0.64和0.62。此外，GTWR 模型在较高的 CV R2 和较低的 CV 均方根误差 (RMSE) 值方面优于普通最小二乘 (OLS)、地理加权回归 (GWR) 和时间加权回归 (TWR) 模型。根据 GTWR 模型估算的丙酮、苯、甲苯和间/对二甲苯的 100m×100m 网格浓度范围分别为 1.57 至 2.57ppbv、0.24–1.06ppbv、0.40–1.56ppbv 和 0.31–1.05ppbv。其中，丙酮、甲苯、间对二甲苯的浓度远低于美国环境保护署（USEPA）的阈值，而苯的浓度则高于USEPA标准的2-10倍。 VOC排放与交通运输、工业活动、商业活动以及娱乐场所的释放密切相关。苯对青少年、成人和老年人的终生癌症风险（LCR）分别在2.3×10−5-0.98×10−5、3.1×10−5-1.4×10−4和3.7×10−5-1.6×10−4范围内，表明对人类健康具有潜在和较高的癌症风险。四种挥发性有机化合物的综合非癌症风险（HQ）远低于安全水平（=1），表明居住在YP区的居民的非癌症风险可以忽略不计。
The adverse health effects of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) highlight the need of spatiotemporal models to assess exposure for epidemiological studies. Herein, a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model was developed to estimate the spatial variability of the VOCs, including acetone, benzene, toluene, and m/p-xylene in Yangpu (YP) District, Shanghai, China. The GTWR model shows a good prediction performance, with cross-validation (CV) R2= 0.60, 0.75, 0.64, and 0.62 for acetone, benzene, toluene, m/p-xylene, respectively. Moreover, the GTWR model outperforms the ordinary least squares (OLS), geographically weighted regression (GWR), and temporally weighted regression (TWR) model in terms of higher CV R2and lower CV root mean square error (RMSE) values. The 100 m × 100 m gridded concentrations of acetone, benzene, toluene and m/p-xylene estimated from the GTWR model range from 1.57 to 2.57 ppbv, 0.24–1.06 ppbv, 0.40–1.56 ppbv, and 0.31–1.05 ppbv, respectively. Among them, the concentrations of acetone, toluene and m/p-xylene are far below the thresholds of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), whereas the benzene concentrations are higher than that of the USEPA's standard by 2–10 times. The VOC emissions are closely associated with transportation, industrial activities, commercial activities, and the release from recreational areas. The lifetime cancer risk (LCR) of benzene for juveniles, adults and elderly are in the range of 2.3 × 10−5- 0.98 × 10−5, 3.1 × 10−5-1.4 × 10−4, and 3.7 × 10−5-1.6 × 10−4, respectively, indicating potential and high cancer risks to human health. The integrated non-cancer risks (HQ) of four VOC species are far below the safe level (=1), suggesting a negligible non-cancer risk for residents living in YP District.