Field-warmed soil carbon changes imply high 21st-century modeling uncertainty
Field-warmed soil carbon changes imply high 21st-century modeling uncertainty
复制标题
田间变暖的土壤碳变化意味着 21 世纪建模的高度不确定性
DOI：
10.5194/bg-15-3659-2018
复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
T. Crowther
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Todd;Bin Zheng;T. Crowther
抽象的。地球变暖与土壤碳流失之间的反馈是
近几十年来，由于其
加速人为气候变化的潜力。土壤碳
传统上，温度敏感性是根据短期估计的
呼吸测量 – 来自实验室孵化
人为操纵或无法区分的现场测量
植物和微生物之间的呼吸作用。为了解决这些限制
与之前的方法相比，我们开发了一种估计土壤温度的新方法
土壤碳直接对变暖引起的变化的敏感性（Q10）
世界各地 36 个实地实验测量的土壤碳储量。
变暖幅度和控制有机碳百分比的变化
解释了大部分现场加热的有机碳百分比
(R2 = 0.96)，揭示了 2.2 [1.6, 2.7] 位点上的 Q10
95 % 置信区间 (CI)。当这些现场导出的 Q10 值
使用 20 的事后修正推断出 21 世纪
耦合模型比对项目第五阶段（CMIP5）地球系统模型
输出，多模型平均土壤碳储量变化从
88 ± 153 Pg 碳的先前值（加权平均值 ± 1 SD）至
19 ± 155 Pg 碳，Q10 驱动的 95 % CI
248 ± 191至-95 ± 209 Pg碳。平均而言，纳入
将现场导出的 Q10 值引入地球系统模型模拟中，得出
预计土壤固碳量将减少
21世纪。然而，相当大的参数不确定性导致
每个地区土壤碳储量预测的变异性极高
模型；由场导出的 Q10 驱动的模型内不确定性为
就像模型之间的差异一样大。这项研究表明数据
集成应该捕获系统的变化以及平均值
趋势。
Abstract. The feedback between planetary warming and soil carbon loss has been the
focus of considerable scientific attention in recent decades, due to its
potential to accelerate anthropogenic climate change. The soil carbon
temperature sensitivity is traditionally estimated from short-term
respiration measurements – either from laboratory incubations that are
artificially manipulated or from field measurements that cannot distinguish
between plant and microbial respiration. To address these limitations of
previous approaches, we developed a new method to estimate soil temperature
sensitivity (Q10) of soil carbon directly from warming-induced changes
in soil carbon stocks measured in 36 field experiments across the world.
Variations in warming magnitude and control organic carbon percentage
explained much of field-warmed organic carbon percentage
(R2 = 0.96), revealing Q10 across sites of 2.2 [1.6, 2.7]
95 % confidence interval (CI). When these field-derived Q10 values
were extrapolated over the 21st century using a post hoc correction of 20
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth system model
outputs, the multi-model mean soil carbon stock changes shifted from the
previous value of 88 ± 153 Pg carbon (weighted mean ± 1 SD) to
19 ± 155 Pg carbon with a Q10-driven 95 % CI of
248 ± 191 to −95 ± 209 Pg carbon. On average, incorporating
the field-derived Q10 values into Earth system model simulations led to
reductions in the projected amount of carbon sequestered in the soil over the
21st century. However, the considerable parameter uncertainty led to
extremely high variability in soil carbon stock projections within each
model; intra-model uncertainty driven by the field-derived Q10 was as
great as that between model variation. This study demonstrates that data
integration should capture the variation of the system, as well as mean
trends.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Booth, Ben B. B.;Jones, Chris D.;Lloyd, Jon
通讯作者：
Lloyd, Jon