Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy
Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1300018110
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发表时间：
2013-08-06
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Li, Hongbin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Yuyu;Ebenstein, Avraham;Li, Hongbin
这篇论文的研究结果表明，中国的一项武断政策大大增加了总悬浮颗粒物（TSP）的空气污染，导致中国北方5亿居民的预期寿命减少了25亿年。准实验性的实证方法是基于中国的淮河政策，该政策通过为淮河以北城市的锅炉提供煤炭来提供免费的冬季供暖，但拒绝向南方供暖。使用基于与淮河距离的回归不连续性设计，我们发现，TSP的环境浓度约为184 μ g/m3 [95%置信区间（CI）：61，307]或北部高出55%。此外，结果表明，由于心肺死亡率增加，北部的预期寿命约低5.5岁（95% CI：0.8，10.2）。更普遍地说，分析表明，长期暴露于额外的100 μ g/m3的TSP与出生时预期寿命减少约3.0岁有关（95% CI：0.4，5.6）。
This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China's Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 mu g/m(3) [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 mu g/m(3) of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).