A drought climatology for Europe
A drought climatology for Europe
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.846
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发表时间：
2002-11-15
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Saunders, MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lloyd-Hughes, B;Saunders, MA
我们提出了一个高空间分辨率，多时相气候的发病率的世纪欧洲干旱。气候学提供了某一特定地点或区域的干旱强度的时间序列、特定强度的干旱的次数、平均持续时间和最长持续时间，以及干旱发生率的趋势。干旱气候学是基于1901-99年期间欧洲地区35- 70度N和35度E-10度W的0.5度网格上计算的3、6、9、12、18和24个月的月度标准化降水指数（SPI）。标准化的属性有利于定量比较不同地点和不同时间尺度的干旱发生率。标准化程序（概率变换）已被严格测试，假设正常，对数正态，和伽玛统计的降水。帕尔默干旱严重程度指数（PDSI）和SPIs之间的时间尺度为9至12个月的近等效性。在12个月的时间尺度上，欧洲极端干旱事件（SPI小于或等于-2）的平均数量和持续时间分别为6 +/- 2个月和27 +/- 8个月。平均最大干旱持续时间为48 +/- 17个月。SPI和PDSI值的趋势表明，欧洲经历极端和/或中度干旱的比例在世纪变化不大。我们希望，气候学将为评估该区域易受干旱影响的程度和这一现象的季节性可预测性提供有用的资源。版权所有（C）2002皇家气象学会。
We present a high spatial resolution, multi-temporal climatology for the incidence of 20th century European drought. The climatology provides, for a given location or region, the time series of drought strength, the number, the mean duration, and the maximum duration of droughts of a given intensity, and the trend in drought incidence. The drought climatology is based on monthly standardized precipitation indices (SPIs) calculated on a 0.5degrees grid over the European region 35-70degreesN and 35degreesE-10degreesW at time scales of 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months for the period 1901-99. The standardized property facilitates the quantitative comparison of drought incidence at different locations and over different time scales. The standardization procedure (probability transformation) has been tested rigorously assuming normal, log-normal, and gamma statistics for precipitation. Near equivalence is demonstrated between the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and SPIs on time scales of 9 to 12 months. The mean number and duration by grid cell of extreme European drought events (SPI less than or equal to -2) on a time scale of 12 months is 6 +/- 2 months and 27 +/- 8 months respectively. The mean maximum drought duration is 48 +/- 17 months. Trends in SPI and PDSI values indicate that the proportion of Europe experiencing extreme and/or moderate drought conditions has changed insignificantly during the 20th century. We hope the climatology will provide a useful resource for assessing both the regional vulnerability to drought and the seasonal predictability of the phenomenon. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.