Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession
Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession
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DOI：
10.1086/680580
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Fernald, John G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fernald, John G.
美国劳动力和全要素生产率增长在大衰退之前放缓。这一时间点排除了经济衰退期间或衰退以来的干扰，行业和国家数据排除了与房地产或金融有关的“泡沫经济”故事。这种放缓发生在生产信息技术（IT）或密集使用IT的行业，这与近十年来IT推动的异常增长后恢复正常的生产率增长相一致。一个经过校准的增长模型显示，趋势生产率增长已经恢复到接近1973-1995年的水平。潜在生产率增长放缓意味着经济疲软程度低于国会预算办公室最近的估计。截至2013年，经济衰退前（过于乐观）趋势的实际产出缺口约有四分之三反映了潜在水平的下降。
US labor and total-factor productivity growth slowed prior to the Great Recession. The timing rules out explanations that focus on disruptions during or since the recession, and industry and state data rule out "bubble economy" stories related to housing or finance. The slow-down is located in industries that produce information technology (IT) or that use IT intensively, consistent with a return to normal productivity growth after nearly a decade of exceptional IT-fueled gains. A calibrated growth model suggests trend productivity growth has returned close to its 1973-1995 pace. Slower underlying productivity growth implies less economic slack than recently estimated by the Congressional Budget Office. As of 2013, about three-fourths of the shortfall of actual output from (overly optimistic) prerecession trends reflects a reduction in the level of potential.