TTOP‐model‐based maps of permafrost distribution in Northeast China for 1961–2020
TTOP‐model‐based maps of permafrost distribution in Northeast China for 1961–2020
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DOI：
10.1002/ppp.2157
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发表时间：
2022-07
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Xiaoying Li;H. Jin;Long Sun;Hongwei Wang;Yadong Huang;R. He;X. Chang;Shao-peng Yu;S. Zang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xiaoying Li;H. Jin;Long Sun;Hongwei Wang;Yadong Huang;R. He;X. Chang;Shao-peng Yu;S. Zang
东北中国在过去的60年里经历了快速而实质性的气候变暖，多年冻土正在迅速退化。利用多年冻土顶部温度(TTOP)模型和地理加权回归方法，从监测到的地表温度估算了中国东北地区多年冻土的分布和范围。利用TTOP模式计算的中国东北地区多年冻土顶部年平均地温(MAGT@TOP)从1961年至1990年(1.8℃)到1991年至2020年(3.0℃)显著增加。中国东北地区1961年至1990年和1991年至2020年由负温MAGT@TOP(MAGT@TOP≤0°C)定义的多年冻土面积分别为461.5×103km2和365.8×103km2，减少了95.7亿km2。平均而言，在钻孔中模拟的MAGT@TOP值比观测到的MAGT@TOP值低2.07℃。MAGT@TOP的模拟值与实测值之间的线性相关系数为0.63。与以往其他模型的仿真结果相比，本研究的结果更加可靠和准确。编制的多年冻土分布图可为中国东北地区多年冻土变化研究提供重要参考。
Northeast China has experienced rapid and substantial climate warming over the past 60 years, and permafrost is degrading rapidly. In this study, permafrost distribution and extent in Northeast China were estimated from monitored ground surface temperatures using the temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model and geographically weighted regression method. Using the TTOP model, the computed mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT@TOP) at the top of permafrost of Northeast China increased significantly from 1961–1990 (1.8°C) to 1991–2020 (3.0°C). The areal extents of permafrost defined by a subzero MAGT@TOP (MAGT@TOP ≤ 0°C) in Northeast China in the period 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 were estimated at 461.5 × 103 and 365.8 × 103 km2, respectively, indicating a decline of 95.7 × 103 km2. On average, the simulated MAGT@TOP values were 2.07°C lower than the observed MAGT@TOP values in boreholes. The linear correlation coefficient between the simulated and measured MAGT@TOP values was 0.63. Compared with the simulation results of other previous models, the result of this research is more reliable and accurate. The compiled maps of permafrost distribution can serve as an important reference for the study of permafrost changes in Northeast China.