The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote
The Economic Consequences of the Brexit Vote
复制标题
英国脱欧公投的经济后果
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Sedláček
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Benjamin Born;Gernot Müller;M. Schularick;P. Sedláček
本文介绍了一种数据驱动、透明和公正的方法来计算2016年6月英国退欧公投的经济成本。我们让一种匹配算法来确定与退欧公投前英国经济增长路径最相似的比较经济体组合。英国退欧公投的经济代价是英国经济与其合成的二重身之间的产出差异。我们发现，与公众的看法相反，到2017年第三季度，英国退欧公投的经济成本已经相当于GDP的1.3%。累计成本接近200亿英镑，预计到2018年底将增长到600亿英镑以上。我们提供的证据表明，政策不确定性加剧已经对投资和消费造成了影响。
This paper introduces a data-driven, transparent and unbiased method to calculate the economic costs of the Brexit vote in June 2016. We let a matching algorithm determine a combination of comparison economies that best resembles the growth path of the UK economy before the Brexit referendum. The economic cost of the Brexit vote is the difference in output between the UK economy and and its synthetic doppelganger. We show that, contrary to public perception, by the third quarter of 2017 the economic costs of the Brexit vote are already 1.3% of GDP. The cumulative costs amount to almost 20 billion pounds and are expected to grow to more than 60 billion pounds by end-2018. We provide evidence that heightened policy uncertainty has already taken a toll on investment and consumption.
离开欧盟的长期经济影响
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Ebell M
通讯作者：
Ebell M