Prevalence estimation subject to misclassification: the mis-substitution bias and some remedies.
Prevalence estimation subject to misclassification: the mis-substitution bias and some remedies.
复制标题
患病率估计受到错误分类的影响：错误替代偏差和一些补救措施。
DOI：
10.1002/sim.6268
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Liu,Aiyi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang,Zhiwei;Liu,Chunling;Kim,Sungduk;Liu,Aiyi
我们考虑在群体测试框架下估计疾病患病率的问题。由于检测方法通常不完善，疾病状态的错误分类是患病率估计的主要挑战。为了解释可能的错误分类，通常假设测定的灵敏度和特异性是已知的并且与组大小无关。这种假设通常是值得怀疑的，并且替换分析的敏感性和特异性的不正确值可能会导致患病率估计值出现较大偏差，我们将其称为错误替换偏差。在本文中，我们提出了简单的流行率估计设计和方法，不需要已知的检测灵敏度和特异性值。如果有金标准测试可用，则可以将其应用于验证子样本，以产生有关不完美测定的灵敏度和特异性的信息。当金标准不可用时，可以根据不同组大小的组测试数据来估计测定灵敏度和特异性，作为未知常数或组大小的指定函数。我们开发用于估计参数以及寻找或近似最佳设计的方法，并进行广泛的模拟实验来评估和比较不同的设计。以人类免疫缺陷病毒感染为例来说明验证子样本设计。版权所有 © 2014 约翰·威利父子有限公司
We consider the problem of estimating the prevalence of a disease under a group testing framework. Because assays are usually imperfect, misclassification of disease status is a major challenge in prevalence estimation. To account for possible misclassification, it is usually assumed that the sensitivity and specificity of the assay are known and independent of the group size. This assumption is often questionable, and substitution of incorrect values of an assay's sensitivity and specificity can result in a large bias in the prevalence estimate, which we refer to as the mis‐substitution bias. In this article, we propose simple designs and methods for prevalence estimation that do not require known values of assay sensitivity and specificity. If a gold standard test is available, it can be applied to a validation subsample to yield information on the imperfect assay's sensitivity and specificity. When a gold standard is unavailable, it is possible to estimate assay sensitivity and specificity, either as unknown constants or as specified functions of the group size, from group testing data with varying group size. We develop methods for estimating parameters and for finding or approximating optimal designs, and perform extensive simulation experiments to evaluate and compare the different designs. An example concerning human immunodeficiency virus infection is used to illustrate the validation subsample design. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.