Passengers' destinations from China: low risk of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America
Passengers' destinations from China: low risk of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America
复制标题
DOI：
10.1017/s0950268820000424
复制
发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Kock, Richard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haider, Najmul;Yavlinsky, Alexei;Kock, Richard
新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]）于2019年12月的最后一周在中国武汉市发现，截至2020年2月5日，在27个国家和地区造成24554例病例。本研究的目的是评估2019-nCoV通过从中国四个主要城市（武汉、北京、上海和广州）到乘客目的地国家的人类乘客航空飞行传播的风险。我们从FLIRT中提取了2020年1月1日至31日期间的每周模拟乘客最终目的地数据，FLIRT是一个在线航空旅行数据集，使用800家航空公司的信息来显示直飞航班和乘客最终目的地。我们根据前往目的地国家的旅行者人数，并根据世界卫生组织（WHO）报告的出发城市确诊病例数进行加权，估计了2019-nCoV传播的风险指数。我们根据四个分位数的风险指数对每个国家进行了排名（第4分位数是最高风险，第1分位数是最低风险）。期间，共有388287名旅客前往全球168个国家或地区的1297个机场。各国2019-nCoV风险指数与WHO报告的确诊病例相关性非常高（0.97）。根据我们的风险评分分类，截至2020年2月5日，在报告至少一例冠状病毒感染的肺炎（COVID-19）病例的国家中，24个国家处于风险指数的第4分位数，2个处于第3分位数，1个处于第2分位数，没有处于第1分位数。在中国以外，2019-nCoV传播风险较高的国家是泰国，柬埔寨，马来西亚，加拿大和美国，所有这些国家都报告了至少一例病例。在泛欧洲，英国、法国、俄罗斯、德国和意大利;在北美，美国和加拿大;在大洋洲，澳大利亚具有高风险，所有这些国家都报告了至少1例病例。在非洲和南美洲，传播风险非常低，埃塞俄比亚、南非、埃及、毛里求斯和巴西的传播风险与至少发现一例病例的任何国家的风险相似。2020年1月31日，亚洲邻国的传播风险非常高，其次是欧洲（英国、法国、俄罗斯和德国）、大洋洲（澳大利亚）和北美（美国和加拿大）。加强公共卫生应对措施，包括早期识别病例、隔离已确定的病例、合同追踪和有针对性的机场筛查、公众意识和卫生工作者的警惕性，将有助于减轻进一步向幼稚国家传播的力量。
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1-31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4(th) quantile being the highest risk and 1(st) quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4(th) quantile of the risk index, two in the 3(rd) quantile, one in the 2(nd) quantile and none in the 1(st) quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naive countries.