Business Cycles in Post-Conflict Serbia: The Cycle Is the Trend
Business Cycles in Post-Conflict Serbia: The Cycle Is the Trend
复制标题
冲突后塞尔维亚的商业周期：周期即趋势
DOI：
10.1080/00128775.2018.1464882
复制
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tomoya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Suzuki;Tomoya
作为一种假设，“周期即趋势”意味着商业周期主要是由产生随机趋势的永久性生产力冲击驱动的。这项研究估计了塞尔维亚在2002年Q2 - 2017年Q2和2007年Q1 - 2017年Q2期间的随机增长模型，从而接受了假设。主要调查结果如下。从塞尔维亚到德国的移民外流对永久性生产力冲击产生了负面影响。永久性生产力冲击与汇款呈负相关，这也表明，在假设工人移徙是为了汇款回家的情况下，移徙外流对永久性生产力冲击产生了负面影响。劳动力市场效率低下迫使工人离开塞尔维亚。
As a hypothesis, “the cycle is the trend” means that business cycles are driven primarily by permanent productivity shocks that generate stochastic trends. This study estimates stochastic growth models for Serbia during the 2002Q2–2017Q2 and 2007Q1–2017Q2 periods, thereby accepting the hypothesis. Major findings are as follows. Migration outflows from Serbia to Germany negatively influenced permanent productivity shocks. Permanent productivity shocks were negatively correlated with remittances, which is also suggestive of the negative effect of migration outflows on permanent productivity shocks under the assumption that workers migrate to send money home. Labor market inefficiency pushes workers out of Serbia.