Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle.
Warming and shifting phenology accelerate an invasive plant life cycle.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/ecy.3219
复制
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Shea K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keller JA;Shea K
许多研究记录了生物生长和繁殖的季节性时间变化，以应对气候变暖。这些变化与记录在案的物种丰度变化相关，但联系这些趋势的机制仍然难以捉摸。我们在田间实验中研究了高级生殖物候和变暖对全球入侵植物(Carduus Nutans)的联合人口统计学影响，记录了向在较年轻年龄完成生活史的实质性转变。人口模型预测，71%的温暖个体以一年生植物的形式开花，而在目前的条件下，这一比例为61%。由于该物种只繁殖一次，这代表着生命周期的重大加速。我们预计这种入侵者的人口增长率将增加15%。我们表明，气温上升通过增加繁殖个体的平均大小，增加存活繁殖的个体的比例，以及增加一年生繁殖的比例，加速了这种入侵物种的种群增长。这一入侵物种以及潜在的许多其他入侵物种的种群增长大幅增加将威胁粮食安全，需要仔细规划，以避免对环境和经济造成重大影响。
Numerous studies have documented changes in the seasonal timing of organisms’ growth and reproduction in response to climate warming. These changes correlate with documented changes in species’ abundance, but mechanisms linking these trends remain elusive. We investigated the joint demographic effects of advanced reproductive phenology and warming on a globally invasive plant (Carduus nutans) in a field experiment, documenting a substantial shift toward completion of the life cycle at younger ages. Demographic modeling projected 71% of warmed individuals flower as annuals, compared to 61% under current conditions. As this species only reproduces once, this represents a major acceleration of the life cycle. We project a 15% increase in this invader’s population growth rate. We show that rising temperatures accelerate this invasive species’ population growth by increasing the average size of reproducing individuals; increasing the proportion of individuals that survive to reproduce; and increasing the fraction that reproduce as annuals. Major increases in population growth in this, and potentially many other, invasive species will threaten food security and require careful planning to avoid significant environmental and economic impacts.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2010.0180
发表时间：
2010-09-27
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Godfray HC;Crute IR;Haddad L;Lawrence D;Muir JF;Nisbett N;Pretty J;Robinson S;Toulmin C;Whiteley R
通讯作者：
Whiteley R
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
MCCARTY, MK
通讯作者：
MCCARTY, MK
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Colautti, Robert I.;Barrett, Spencer C. H.
通讯作者：
Barrett, Spencer C. H.
影响因子：
3
作者：
HAMRICK, JL;LEE, JM
通讯作者：
LEE, JM
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Jongejans, Eelke;Sheppard, Andy W.;Shea, Katriona
通讯作者：
Shea, Katriona