Global drivers of future river flood risk
Global drivers of future river flood risk
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2893
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发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Ward, Philip J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Winsemius, Hessel C.;Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.;Ward, Philip J.
了解全球未来河流洪水风险是量化气候变化影响和规划有效适应战略的先决条件（1）。现有的全球洪水风险预测未能综合考虑预期的社会经济发展和气候变化的综合动态。我们提出了第一个全球未来河流洪水风险预测，将气候变化和社会经济发展的影响分开。这些预测是基于气候模型输出（2）、社会经济情景（3）和最先进的水文河流洪水模型与社会经济影响模型（4，5）的集合。在全球范围内，如果不采取行动，到世纪结束时，绝对损害可能增加20倍。东南亚国家面临着洪水风险的严重增加。尽管气候变化对东南亚风险的增加有显著影响，但我们发现，即使在国内生产总值（GDP）增长正常化之后，社会经济增长的影响也使气候变化相形见绌。主要由于社会经济变化，非洲国家面临的风险大幅增加。然而，当与国内生产总值标准化时，气候变化成为迄今为止最强大的驱动因素。高收入和低收入国家都可以从投资于适应措施中获益匪浅，我们的分析为此提供了依据。
Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies(1). Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs(2), socio-economic scenarios(3), and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models(4,5). Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia(6), we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high-and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.