An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number
An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0083622
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发表时间：
2013-12-31
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Greer, Amy L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fisman, David N.;Hauck, Tanya S.;Greer, Amy L.
背景：新型或现有病原体的传染病暴发威胁着全球范围内的人类健康。即使能获得有限的初步数据，也应迅速确定这种疫情的特征，并对其持续时间和累积规模作出准确预测。在这里，我们开发了一个数学模型，以帮助公共卫生当局通过明确表示可能减缓流行病增长的因素（人口免疫力以外的因素）来跟踪疫情的扩展和收缩。方法：发病率衰减和指数调整（IDEA）模型是一种简洁的函数，它使用基本再现数R-0和贴现因子，仅使用基本流行病学信息（例如，每日发病率计数）来预测疫情的增长。主要发现：与模拟数据相比，当R-0处于低或中等水平时，IDEA提供了对特定疫情的总规模和持续时间的高度准确估计，并且还确定了转折点或新浪潮。在对甲型H1N1大流行性流感爆发进行测试时，该模型使用来自第i个序列区间的数据在实际发病率的平均20%范围内产生第i+1个序列区间的估计发病率。结论和意义：该传染病暴发模型提供了暴发增长和公共卫生干预措施的快速评估。在实际疫情背景下的进一步评估将确定IDEA作为一线流行病学家工具的实用性。
Background: Communicable disease outbreaks of novel or existing pathogens threaten human health around the globe. It would be desirable to rapidly characterize such outbreaks and develop accurate projections of their duration and cumulative size even when limited preliminary data are available. Here we develop a mathematical model to aid public health authorities in tracking the expansion and contraction of outbreaks with explicit representation of factors (other than population immunity) that may slow epidemic growth.Methodology: The Incidence Decay and Exponential Adjustment (IDEA) model is a parsimonious function that uses the basic reproduction number R-0, along with a discounting factor to project the growth of outbreaks using only basic epidemiological information (e. g., daily incidence counts).Principal Findings: Compared to simulated data, IDEA provides highly accurate estimates of total size and duration for a given outbreak when R-0 is low or moderate, and also identifies turning points or new waves. When tested with an outbreak of pandemic influenza A (H1N1), the model generates estimated incidence at the i+1th serial interval using data from the ith serial interval within an average of 20% of actual incidence.Conclusions and Significance: This model for communicable disease outbreaks provides rapid assessments of outbreak growth and public health interventions. Further evaluation in the context of real-world outbreaks will establish the utility of IDEA as a tool for front-line epidemiologists.