Early spread of COVID-19 in Romania: imported cases from Italy and human-to-human transmission networks
Early spread of COVID-19 in Romania: imported cases from Italy and human-to-human transmission networks
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.200780
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发表时间：
2020-07-22
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Lerner, Jurgen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hancean, Marian-Gabriel;Perc, Matjaz;Lerner, Jurgen
我们描述了新型冠状病毒(新冠肺炎)的早期传播和罗马尼亚的第一个人传人网络。我们对首批147例病例进行了描述，涉及性别、年龄、居住地、可能的感染国家、返回罗马尼亚的日期、新冠肺炎确诊日期以及新冠肺炎的可能传播方式。此外，我们还分析了人与人之间的传播网络，并探索了它们的结构特征和时间动力学。在罗马尼亚，本地传播周期之前有输入性病例，主要来自意大利。我们平均观察4.8天(S.D.在到达罗马尼亚一个县和确认新冠肺炎之间。此外，在首批147例新冠肺炎患者中，88例为输入性病例(携带者来自意大利)，54例为国内病例，5例感染源不明。早期的人与人之间的传播网络显示了有限的地理分散、超级传播者的存在以及新冠肺炎医院感染的风险。新冠肺炎是通过从意大利进口的案件在罗马尼亚发生的。罗马尼亚侨民中最大的一部分集中在意大利北部地区，受新冠肺炎的影响很大。人口流动(包括迁徙)是新冠肺炎传播的原因，在制定预防措施时应该考虑到这一点。
We describe the early spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the first human-to-human transmission networks, in Romania. We profiled the first 147 cases referring to sex, age, place of residence, probable country of infection, return day to Romania, COVID-19 confirmation date and the probable modes of COVID-19 transmissions. Also, we analysed human-to-human transmission networks and explored their structural features and time dynamics. In Romania, local cycles of transmission were preceded by imported cases, predominantly from Italy. We observed an average of 4.8 days (s.d. = 4.0) between the arrival to a Romanian county and COVID-19 confirmation. Furthermore, among the first 147 COVID-19 patients, 88 were imported cases (64 carriers from Italy), 54 were domestic cases, while for five cases the source of infection was unknown. The early human-to-human transmission networks illustrated a limited geographical dispersion, the presence of super-spreaders and the risk of COVID-19 nosocomial infections. COVID-19 occurred in Romania through case importation from Italy. The largest share of the Romanian diaspora is concentrated especially in the northern parts of Italy, heavily affected by COVID-19. Human mobility (including migration) accounts for the COVID-19 transmission and it should be given consideration while tailoring prevention measures.