Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
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DOI：
10.1162/rest_a_01042
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发表时间：
2022-01-06
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Taylor, Alan M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jorda, Oscar;Singh, Sanjay R.;Taylor, Alan M.
流行病的中长期影响是什么？它们与其他经济灾难有何不同？我们使用资产回报率来研究主要的流行病，这些资产的回报率可以追溯到世纪。大流行病的重大宏观经济后果持续了几十年，回报率大幅度下降。这些反应与战后的情况形成鲜明对比。我们的发现也雅阁工资和产出的反应，使用更有限的数据，并与新古典增长模型一致：资本在战争中被摧毁，但不是在流行病中;流行病反而可能导致更多的劳动力稀缺或更多的预防性储蓄，或两者兼而有之。
What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? Do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using rates of return on assets stretching back to the fourteenth century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with rates of return substantially depressed. The responses are in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings also accord with wage and output responses, using more limited data, and are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce more labor scarcity or more precautionary savings, or both.