Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes
Simulation of river flow in Britain under climate change: Baseline performance and future seasonal changes
复制标题
气候变化下英国河流流量模拟：基线表现和未来季节变化
作者：
A. Kay
气候变化很可能表现为地球仪的河流流量变化，这可能对社会和自然环境产生广泛的影响。以前的一些研究使用英国气候预测2009（UKCP 09）调查对英国河流流量的潜在影响，但这些预测最近更新了UKCP 18的发布，因此有必要更新流量研究。在这里，UKCP 18区域（12公里）的预测应用于国家尺度的网格水文模型，以调查英国季节性平均河流流量的潜在未来变化。使用基线气候模型数据（1980-2010年）进行的水文模型性能分析显示，与使用基于观测的数据相对较好的一致性，特别是在应用月降水偏差校正后。对未来两个时间段（2020-2050年和2050-2080年）的季节平均流量变化的分析表明，全国夏季流量大幅减少（到2050-2080年中位数为-45%），但冬季流量可能增加（到2050-2080年中位数为9%），特别是在北部和西部。使用最新预测的流量变化的潜在范围的信息对于制定适当的适应战略是必要的，与以前的预测进行比较可以帮助更新现有的计划，尽管这种比较往往不是直截了当的。
Climate change is likely to manifest in river flow changes across the globe, which could have wide‐ranging consequences for society and the natural environment. A number of previous studies used the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to investigate the potential impacts on river flows in Britain, but these projections were recently updated by the release of UKCP18, thus there is a need to update flow studies. Here, the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) projections are applied using a national‐scale grid‐based hydrological model, to investigate potential future changes in seasonal mean river flows across Great Britain. Analysis of hydrological model performance using baseline climate model data (1980–2010) shows relatively good agreement with use of observation‐based data, particularly after application of a monthly precipitation bias‐correction. Analysis of seasonal mean flow changes for two future time‐slices (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) suggests large decreases in summer flows across the country (median −45% by 2050–2080), but possible increases in winter flows (median 9% by 2050–2080), especially in the north and west. Information on the potential range of flow changes using the latest projections is necessary to develop appropriate adaptation strategies, and comparisons with previous projections can help update existing plans, although such comparisons are often not straightforward.
蒸发的水文学视角：英国的历史趋势和未来预测
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Reynard N
通讯作者：
Reynard N
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Bell, V. A.;Kay, A. L.;Reynard, N. S.
通讯作者：
Reynard, N. S.