The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

发表时间：

2013-04

期刊：

Climate Dynamics

影响因子：

4.6

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

地球科学2区

文献类型：

作者：

R. Vautard;A. Gobiet;D. Jacob;M. Belda;A. Colette;M. Déqué;Jesús Fernández;M. García-Díez;K. Goergen;I. Güttler;T. Halenka;T. Karacostas;E. Katragkou;K. Keuler;S. Kotlarski;S. Mayer;E. Meijgaard;G. Nikulin;Mirta Patarčić;J. Scinocca;S. Sobolowski;M. Suklitsch;C. Teichmann;K. Warrach‐Sagi;V. Wulfmeyer;P. Yiou

评估了大型区域气候模式集合在欧洲区域尺度上准确模拟热浪的能力。在EURO-CORDEX项目内，几个最先进的模式，包括非静力中尺度模式，以高分辨率(12亿公里)运行了一段较长的时间(2000万年)，首次能够在大范围空间尺度上同时表示大气现象。8个模型在这种配置下运行，13个模型以50亿公里的经典分辨率运行。这些模式是用相同的边界条件驱动的，即ERA-临时再分析，除了一次模拟外，没有观测数据被同化在内部区域。与逐日温度和降水观测(ECA&D和E-OBS数据集)相比较的结果表明，即使在相同的再分析的强迫下，集合也表现出很大的扩散。对扩散源的初步分析，特别是使用不同参数对同一模式的模拟，表明热温度的模拟主要对对流和微物理方案敏感，这影响了输入能量和鲍文比。此外，大多数模型高估了地中海地区夏季的极端温度，低估了斯堪的纳维亚地区的极端温度。即使在去除偏差后，模拟的热波事件也被发现过于持久，但更高的分辨率减少了这一缺陷。在几乎所有的模拟中，事件的幅度以及超过90%阈值的变异性都被发现太强，而且提高分辨率通常不会改善这一缺陷。分辨率的提高还表明，对于一些模型来说，提高分辨率会导致90%的大范围升温或降温，对总体偏差有有利或不利的影响。尽管不能在这项评价工作的基础上确定全部因果关系，但这种区域差异的驱动因素被证明与分辨率变化引起的降水变化有关，从而影响了能量分配。最后，尽管高估了炎热天数和可变性，但在大多数实验中，中欧/南欧炎热夏季的年际序列被发现模拟得相当好。对几个模型的年际变化的精确模拟与模型偏差无关。这表明，夏季高温的内部变化不应在控制年际变化方面发挥主要作用。尽管有了一些改进，特别是在海岸线上，但这里进行的分析并不能让我们得出普遍的结论，即较高的分辨率显然有利于区域气候模型正确表示热浪。即使局地尺度的反馈应该在高分辨率下得到更好的表示，参数化的组合也必须相应地改进或调整。

The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.

The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project

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