Whole truths vs. half truths - And a search for clarity in long-term water temperature records
Whole truths vs. half truths - And a search for clarity in long-term water temperature records
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecss.2015.01.021
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发表时间：
2015-05-05
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Filson, M. E. Q.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fulweiler, R. W.;Oczkowski, A. J.;Filson, M. E. Q.
科学界普遍认为，人类活动是当今气候变化的主要原因。但是，气候变化如何影响生态系统仍然是公众困惑的根源。这种混乱与记者和科学家之间缺乏明确的沟通有关，特别是在解决生态数据集的可变性和不确定性方面。在这里，我们使用长期的地表水温度数据集从纳拉甘塞特湾和最近的误解，长期的温度数据发生在国家阶段作为一个案例研究。具体而言，我们重新评估和更新记录，并检查长期数据集固有的可变性。我们发现，尽管每年的变化很大，但纳拉甘塞特湾的表面沃茨在过去50年里增加了1.4摄氏度到1.6摄氏度的总上升。在这段时间里，冬季变暖特别高，增加了1.6摄氏度到2.0摄氏度。最后，我们确定需要科学家，政治家和记者，以适当地解决数据的可变性，我们主张增加这些群体之间的沟通。(C)2015爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
There is widespread acceptance among the scientific community that human activities are the primary cause of present day climate change. But, how a changing climate impacts ecosystems is still a source of confusion to the public. Some of this confusion is associated with a lack of clear communication among journalists and scientists, particularly when it comes to addressing variability and uncertainty in ecological datasets. Here we use long-term surface water temperature data sets from Narragansett Bay and a recent misunderstanding of long-term temperature data that occurred on the national stage as a case study. Specifically, we re-evaluate and update the record and examine the variability inherent in long-term data sets. We found that despite high year to year variations the surface waters of Narragansett Bay have increased between 1.4 degrees C to 1.6 degrees C total rise over the last fifty years. Winter warming has been especially high over this time period, increasing between 1.6 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C. Finally, we identify the need for scientists, politicians, and journalists to appropriately address data variability and we argue for increased communication among these groups. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.