An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020
An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-7-4419-2007
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Hayasaka, T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ohara, T.;Akimoto, H.;Hayasaka, T.
我们为 1980-2020 年期间制定了新的亚洲排放清单（亚洲区域排放清单 (REAS) 1.1 版）。 REAS 是第一个基于一致方法整合亚洲历史、当前和未来排放量的清单。我们在此列出了 2000 年的排放量、1980-2003 年的历史排放量以及 2010 年和 2020 年来自燃料燃烧和工业来源的 SO2、NOx、CO、NMVOC、黑碳 (BC) 和有机碳 (OC) 的预计排放量。 1980年至2003年间，亚洲的能源消耗总量增加了一倍以上，导致亚洲排放量快速增长，BC增加了28%，OC增加了30%，CO增加了64%，NMVOC增加了108%，SO2增加了119%，NOx增加了176%。特别是，中国的氮氧化物排放量比1980年的水平显着增加了280%，并且自2000年以来排放量的增长速度非常高。中国的这些增长主要是由于发电厂和工业部门煤炭燃烧的增加造成的。由于汽车、溶剂和油漆使用的增长，NMVOC 排放量也迅速增加。相比之下，由于国内和工业部门生物燃料和煤炭使用量的减少，中国的BC、OC和CO排放量从1996年到2000年呈下降趋势。然而，自2000年以来，中国这些物种的排放量开始增加。因此，1980-2003年亚洲国家（特别是中国）的空气污染物排放量呈现出较大的时间变化。根据排放情景和2000年的排放量，预测了亚洲国家2010年和2020年的未来排放量。对于中国，我们制定了三种排放情景：PSC（政策成功案例）、REF（参考案例）和PFC（政策失败案例）。在 2020 年 REF 情景中，亚洲 SO2、NOx 和 NMVOC 总排放量预计将比 2000 年的水平分别大幅增加 22%、44% 和 99%。 2020 年 REF 情景显示，与 2000 年水平相比，CO 略有增加（12%），BC 增加较小（1%），OC 略有下降（-5%）。然而，值得注意的是，亚洲总排放量很大程度上受到中国排放情景的影响。
We developed a new emission inventory for Asia ( Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) Version 1.1) for the period 1980-2020. REAS is the first inventory to integrate historical, present, and future emissions in Asia on the basis of a consistent methodology. We present here emissions in 2000, historical emissions for 1980-2003, and projected emissions for 2010 and 2020 of SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, black carbon ( BC), and organic carbon (OC) from fuel combustion and industrial sources. Total energy consumption in Asia more than doubled between 1980 and 2003, causing a rapid growth in Asian emissions, by 28% for BC, 30% for OC, 64% for CO, 108% for NMVOC, 119% for SO2, and 176% for NOx. In particular, Chinese NOx emissions showed a marked increase of 280% over 1980 levels, and growth in emissions since 2000 has been extremely high. These increases in China were mainly caused by increases in coal combustion in the power plants and industrial sectors. NMVOC emissions also rapidly increased because of growth in the use of automobiles, solvents, and paints. By contrast, BC, OC, and CO emissions in China showed decreasing trends from 1996 to 2000 because of a reduction in the use of biofuels and coal in the domestic and industry sectors. However, since 2000, Chinese emissions of these species have begun to increase. Thus, the emissions of air pollutants in Asian countries ( especially China) showed large temporal variations from 1980-2003. Future emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Asian countries were projected by emission scenarios and from emissions in 2000. For China, we developed three emission scenarios: PSC ( policy success case), REF ( reference case), and PFC ( policy failure case). In the 2020 REF scenario, Asian total emissions of SO2, NOx, and NMVOC were projected to increase substantially by 22%, 44%, and 99%, respectively, over 2000 levels. The 2020 REF scenario showed a modest increase in CO (12%), a lesser increase in BC (1%), and a slight decrease in OC (-5%) compared with 2000 levels. However, it should be noted that Asian total emissions are strongly influenced by the emission scenarios for China.