The Changing Efficiency of the American Economy, 1869-1938
The Changing Efficiency of the American Economy, 1869-1938
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1869-1938 年美国经济效率的变化
DOI：
10.2307/1925628
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发表时间：
1952
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jacob Schmookler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jacob Schmookler
本文所讨论的单位总投入产出指数旨在描述1869年至1938年美国整体技术变革的模式和规模。该指数以国家产出和投入为基础，具有以下特征：1.产出等于以1929年价格计算的国民生产总值（库兹涅茨系列）。2.投入等于劳动力、土地、资本和企业投入的总和，以1929年的价格计算。a.劳动力投入，包括农业和非农业劳动力的单独加权1929年工资率，是在两个变量中衡量劳动工时，其他人，年。两个交替的总投入措施的结果。B.除了资本消耗，财产投入（包括企业）是通过用1929年的财产回报率加权给定时期的土地和可再生生产者财富的组合价值来确定的。C.耕地面积的变化在土地部分占主导地位。然而，土地估价权重反映了城市和农田每英亩的I929价值。D. 1929年价格下的可再生生产者财富是从库兹涅茨的一个数列中推导出来的。e.以1929年价格计算的资本消耗包括在非劳动投入中。3.投入和产出以重叠的十年平均数表示。我们现在可以注意到这些指数的主要优点和缺点。我们的统计数据以1929年的价格来衡量这一时期的产出和投入。然而，我们的目标是按照基期买家的价值来衡量它们。由于不同产品和资源的相对数量在一个时期内是变化的，我们可以假设基期购买者会在基期之外对每种成分进行估价。由于这些变化，我们的指数与总投入和总产出的“真实”估值的精确关系是无法证明的。这是由于指数的永久性和不可解决的缺陷造成的。为了使指数准确地实现其预期目的，即衡量技术变化，线性应贯穿于商品之间的转换关系、要素之间的替代关系、商品之间的消费者无差别关系以及要素与商品之间的生产关系（包括规模报酬不变）。尽管不满足这些要求，但只要缺陷不破坏结果的所有重要性，有缺陷的工具总比没有工具好。对于短期比较，指数可以给出相当有效的结果。对于长期比较，不确定性增加，但至少需要一个粗略的近似值。由共同的语言、政府和货币体系联系在一起。美国经济的多样性一直是一个相当连贯的整体。它的部件的属性的平均值不仅在计算上是可能的：平均值本身在真实的意义上显著地影响部件。因此，尽管概念上存在缺陷，但总体措施是必不可少的。不可否认，经济的长期和周期性地位对其组成部分的相应特征产生了巨大的影响。本文将对一种或多种这样的影响进行初步的分析。我们还将看到，我们的指数描述了由独立证据证实的技术变化模式。我们将首先讨论这些指数的组成部分，然后将综合效率指数与主要工业部门的类似指数进行比较。
T HE index of output per unit of total input that is discussed in this article is intended to describe the pattern and magnitude of technical change for the United States as a whole from I869 to I938. Based on national output and input, the index possesses the following attributes: I. Output equals gross national product in I929 prices (the Kuznets series). 2. Input equals the sum of labor, land, capital, and enterprise inputs in I929 prices. a. Labor input, involving separate weighting of agricultural and non-agricultural labor by I929 wage rates, is presented in two variants one measuring labor in manhours, the other, in man-years. Two alternate total input measures result. b. Other than capital consumption, property input (including enterprise) is determined by weighting the given-period's combined value of land and reproducible producers' wealth in I929 prices by the I929 rate of return on property. c. Changes in the amount of farm acreage dominate the land component. The land valuation weight, however, reflects the I929 value per acre of both urban and farm land. d. Reproducible producers' wealth in I929 prices is derived from one of Kuznets' series. e. Capital consumed in I929 prices is included in nonlabor input. 3. Input and output are presented in overlapping decade averages. We may now note the leading merits and shortcomings of the indexes. Formally our statistics measure output and input for the period in I929 prices. Our objective is, however, to measure them as though valued by baseperiod buyers. Since relative quantities of different products and resources varied over the period, we can assume that base-period buyers would have valued each ingredient otherwise than in the base period. Because of these variations, the precise relation of our indexes to the "true" valuation of aggregate inputs and outputs is indemonstrable. This flows from the permanent and insoluble defect of index numbers. For the index exactly to fulfill its intended purpose, the measurement of technical change, linearity should pervade transformation relationships between goods, substitution relationships between factors, consumer indifference relationships between goods, and production relationships between factors and goods (including constant returns to scale). Though these requirements are not met, so long as the defects are not destructive of all significance of results, a defective tool is preferable to none at all. For shorter-period comparisons, an index number can give fairly valid results. For longer-term comparisons, the uncertainties mount, but the need for at least a rough approximation remains. Linked by a common language, government, and monetary system. America's economy with all its manifold diversity has been a fairly coherent whole. Averages of attributes of its parts are not only computationally possible: the averages themselves in a real sense significantly influence the parts. For this reason aggregative measures, conceptual flaws notwithstanding, are indispensable. That the secular and cyclical position of the economy exerts great force upon the corresponding characteristics of its components cannot be gainsaid. In this paper adumbrations of one.more such influence will appear. As we shall also see, our indexes describe patterns of technical change corroborated by independent vidence. We shall discuss first the components of the indexes, and then compare the aggregative efficiency index with similar indexes for major industrial segments.