Wildfire Trend Analysis over the Contiguous United States Using Remote Sensing Observations
Wildfire Trend Analysis over the Contiguous United States Using Remote Sensing Observations
复制标题
利用遥感观测对美国本土野火趋势进行分析
作者：
John Salguero;Jingjing Li;A. Farahmand;J. Reager
了解整个美国(US)野火制度的演变对于准备、缓解和规划国家野火至关重要。最近的野火轨迹显示，美国各地野火的频率和规模都有所增加，这使得记录野火制度的变化成为一个越来越重要的话题。虽然之前的研究使用生态区来研究野火状况，但这项研究通过地理区域协调中心(GACC)分析了美国毗邻地区34年来(1984-2017)的野火状况。GAC是由野火机构设计的地缘政治边界，旨在促进在野火等紧急情况下分配资源的有效方式。野火观测来自烧伤严重程度监测趋势(MTBS)数据库，该数据库记录了美国西部(东部)1000(500)英亩或更大的大火事件。利用GACCS和MTBS数据，这项研究通过以下三个参数检查了美国毗邻地区的野火状况：总烧毁面积、频率和平均烧毁面积。这项研究描述了野火参数的趋势方向，这些参数具有统计意义。结果表明，大多数GACC地区显示出统计上的显著趋势，包括美国西部以外的野火制度(例如，南部GACC)。西北和西南部GACC在观察到的每一个参数上都显示出统计上显著的积极趋势。加利福尼亚州和大盆地GAC在平均燃烧面积方面显示出统计上显著的积极趋势。东部GACC是唯一没有显示任何重大趋势的区域。确定重要的野火制度及其趋势方向可以帮助野火机构将对环境、社会和经济的负面影响降至最低。
Understanding the evolution of wildfire regimes throughout the United States (US) is crucial in the preparation, mitigation, and planning for national wildfires. Recent wildfire trajectories demonstrating an increase in both frequency and size across the US have made documenting the changes in wildfire regimes a topic of growing importance. While previous studies have examined wildfire regimes using ecoregions, this study analyzes wildfire regimes through the Geographic Area Coordination Center (GACC) regions across the Contiguous US over 34 years, 1984–2017. GACCs are geopolitical boundaries designed by wildfire agencies to promote an efficient way to distribute resources during emergencies such as wildfires. Wildfire observations originate from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database which records large fire events that are 1000(500) acres or greater in the Western (Eastern) US. Using GACCs and MTBS data, this study examines wildfire regimes across the Contiguous US through the following three parameters: total burned area, frequency, and average burned area. This study characterizes the trend direction of the wildfire parameters and which are statistically significant. Results demonstrate that most GACC regions display statistically significant trends, including wildfire regimes that are beyond the Western US (e.g., Southern GACC). The Northwest and Southwest GACCs demonstrate statistically significant positive trends in every parameter observed. The California and Great Basin GACCs demonstrate statistically significant positive trends in the average burned area. The Eastern GACC is the only region to not display any significant trends. Determining significant wildfire regimes and their trend direction can help wildfire agencies to minimize the negative impacts on the environment, society, and economy.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1802316115
发表时间：
2018-09-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Holden, Zachary A.;Swanson, Alan;Affleck, David
通讯作者：
Affleck, David