A Comparison of Two Ensemble Generation Methods Using Oceanic Singular Vectors and Atmospheric Lagged Initialization for Decadal Climate Prediction
A Comparison of Two Ensemble Generation Methods Using Oceanic Singular Vectors and Atmospheric Lagged Initialization for Decadal Climate Prediction
复制标题
使用海洋奇异向量和大气滞后初始化进行十年气候预测的两种集合生成方法的比较
DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-15-0350.1
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
D. Stammer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Marini;Iuliia Polkova;A. Köhl;D. Stammer
摘要利用基于海洋奇异向量（OSV）的扰动，结合海洋初始条件的不确定性，研究了年代际预测的集合扩展和预测技能分数对集合生成细节的敏感性。结果与传统的大气滞后初始化（ALI）方法进行了比较。两组实验均采用GECCO2海洋合成初始化的MPI-ESM耦合模型进行。osv是根据历史MPI-ESM运行的线性逆模型计算的。在前3年，ALI后播的海面温度传播似乎被严重低估，而OSV后播则显示出更真实的传播。然而，对于较晚的预估时间（预估的第二候），在两个集合中，对海洋的大片区域的扩散就被高估了。然而，对于北大西洋海温和大西洋经向翻转环流等综合措施，OSV后低压的传播被高估了。
AbstractThe sensitivity of ensemble spread and forecast skill scores of decadal predictions to details of the ensemble generation is investigated by incorporating uncertainties of ocean initial conditions using ocean singular-vector-based (OSV) perturbations. Results are compared to a traditional atmospheric lagged initialization (ALI) method. Both sets of experiments are performed using the coupled MPI-ESM model initialized from the GECCO2 ocean synthesis. The OSVs are calculated from a linear inverse model based on a historical MPI-ESM run. During the first three lead years, the sea surface temperature spread from ALI hindcasts appears to be strongly underestimated, while OSV hindcasts show a more realistic spread. However, for later lead times (the second pentad of hindcasts), the spread becomes overestimated for large areas of the ocean in both ensembles. Yet, for integrated measures such as the North Atlantic SST and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the spread of OSV hindcasts is overesti...
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Goddard, L.;Kumar, A.;Delworth, T.
通讯作者：
Delworth, T.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Ho, Chun Kit;Hawkins, Ed;Eade, Rosie
通讯作者：
Eade, Rosie